An agent-based simulation on navigational capacity of multi-bridge waterways
An agent-based simulation on navigational capacity of multi-bridge waterways
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DOI：
10.1177/1475090216635681
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发表时间：
2017-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Sang;Xiaopong Tong;Wuxiong Xu;Zhe Mao;Xin-ping Yan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Sang;Xiaopong Tong;Wuxiong Xu;Zhe Mao;Xin-ping Yan
河流多桥航道，由于通过效率降低，船舶风险增大，会造成通航瓶颈现象。通航能力的计算不仅有利于甲板管理人员安全、高效地作业，而且可以辅助管理人员组织海上交通。提出了一种基于智能体的武汉多桥航道通航能力仿真评价方法。采集自动识别系统的数据，对多桥航道的海上交通进行表征。采用蒙特卡罗方法生成智能体，根据估计的参数生成所需的船型、长度、宽度、航速和到达时间等随机数。根据多桥航道的实际运行要求，制定了智能体的七种行为策略。通过实际分段海上交通流量数据验证了所提出的基于智能体的仿真方法的有效性。模拟结果表明，在当前通航条件下，所调查的多桥航道中期通航能力约为1512艘/日(上游597艘，下游915艘)。此外，陆上速度的提高可以提高通航能力，有利于能力的利用。
Multi-bridge waterways of river can cause the navigational bottleneck phenomenon because of the decreased passing efficiency and the increased ship risk. The navigational capacity calculation not only makes benefits to deck officers in operating safely and efficiently but also assists supervisors in the maritime traffic organizing. An agent-based simulation is proposed to evaluate the navigational capacity of multi-bridge waterways in Wuhan. Automatic Identification System data are collected to characterize the maritime traffic of multi-bridge waterways. The Monte Carlo methods are used to generate agents, while the needed random numbers in terms of ship type, length, width, speed over ground and arrival time are generated according to the estimated parameters. Seven behaviour strategies of the agent are made based on the real operation requirements of multi-bridge waterways. The proposed agent-based simulation is validated by the real sectional maritime traffic volume data. Simulation results show that, under the current navigational conditions, the navigational capacity of the investigated multi-bridge waterways in middle season is approximately 1512 ships (597 upstream ships and 915 downstream ships) per day. In addition, the increase in speed over ground can improve the navigational capacity and facilitate the capacity utilization.