Spatial dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) spread in the southern Kyushu, Japan
Spatial dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) spread in the southern Kyushu, Japan
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DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.05.025
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发表时间：
2017-09-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Alvarez, Julio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sasaki, Yosuke;Toyomaki, Haruya;Alvarez, Julio
2013年10月，冲绳县在日本发现猪流行性腹泻(PED)，这是7年来的首次。到2013年12月，PED已经蔓延到九州南部的宫崎县和鹿儿岛县，这是日本农业密度最高的地区之一。这项研究的目的是评估从2013年12月到2014年7月期间九州南部疫情的8个月期间PED传播的空间动态。关于各省(n=1269)所有农场的位置和能力的信息是从政府数据库中获得的，该数据库载有牲畜生产者的人口统计信息。此外，从区域牲畜卫生服务中心获得了PED检测数据(阳性或阴性)。运用库齐克-爱德华兹(CE)检验、诺克斯检验、方向性检验和扫描统计量的置换模型对疫情的时空分布进行了评估。在整个研究期间，PED的累积农场水平发病率为19.5%(248/1269)。阳性农场的密度最高的是该县农场人口最多的地区。CE检验显示了广泛的空间聚集程度，阳性站点的聚集显著(P<；0.01)，直到第35级邻域(在所研究的数据中约5公里)。在较短的时空距离内，观察到的病例与预期的比率最大，当阈值分别设定为2公里和10天时，病例的观察与预期比率的值最大。向东北方向发现了一个显著的(P<；0.01)扩散方向。排列模型检测到5个显著差异(P
Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) was detected for the first time in seven years in Japan in October 2013 in Okinawa Prefecture. By December 2013, PED had spread into Miyazaki and Kagoshima Prefectures in the southern part of Kyushu, one of the regions with the highest farm density in the country. The objective of the study here was to assess the spatial dynamics of PED spread during the 8 months of the epidemic in the southern part of Kyushu between December 2013, the month observed first case in the studied region, and July 2014. Information on location and capacity of all farms in the prefectures(n=1269) was obtained from a government database containing demographic information for livestock producers. Additionally, data on PED detection (positive or negative) was obtained from the regional Livestock Hygiene Service Center. The Cuzick-Edwards (CE) test, the Knox test, the directional test, and the permutation model of the scan statistic were used to assess the spatio-temporal distribution of the epidemic. PED cumulative farm level incidence was 19.5% (248/1269) through the study period. The highest density of positive farms was observed in the most farm-populated areas of the prefecture. The CE test revealed an extensive degree of spatial clustering, with clustering of positive sites being significant (P < 0.01) up to the 35th level of neighborhood (approximately 5 km in the studied data). The observed-to-expected ratio of cases was maximized at short spatio-temporal distances, with values of the observed-to-expected ratio of cases maximized when the thresholds were set at 2 km and 10 days, respectively. A significant (P< 0.01) direction of spread was detected towards the northeastern direction. The permutation model detected five significant (P