Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections
Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections
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DOI：
10.1002/qj.1998
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Pappenberger, Florian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cloke, Hannah L.;Wetterhall, Fredrik;Pappenberger, Florian
模拟评估未来气候对洪水的影响所提供的证据对于水资源和洪水风险决策至关重要。影响模型通常依赖于全球和区域气候模型（GCM/RCM）的气候预测。然而，在流域尺度分辨率表示降水事件的挑战意味着，必须决定如何适当地预处理的气象变量从GCM/RCM。在这里，预计高流量的不同集合方法和应用模式输出统计RCM降水的影响进行评估，同时评估气候变化对洪水灾害的影响，在英国上塞文流域。各种集合预测与具有直接强迫的HBV水文模型一起使用，并与响应面技术进行比较。我们认为，从目前的英国气候预测（UKCP 09）的单模式集合RCM预测，从欧盟的FP 6 ENSEMBLES'项目的多模式集合RCM预测，和一个联合概率分布的降水和温度从基于GCM扰动物理合奏。合奏分布的结果表明，洪水灾害在上塞文可能会增加相比，目前的条件下，但研究强调了不同的合奏方法和强有力的假设，在使用模型输出统计产生的估计，未来的河流流量的结果之间的差异。结果强调了使用当前一代RCM进行洪水对当地气候影响研究所面临的挑战。版权所有（c）2012皇家气象学会
The evidence provided by modelled assessments of future climate impact on flooding is fundamental to water resources and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from global and regional climate models (GCM/RCMs). However, challenges in representing precipitation events at catchment-scale resolution mean that decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs. Here the impacts on projected high flows of differing ensemble approaches and application of Model Output Statistics to RCM precipitation are evaluated while assessing climate change impact on flood hazard in the Upper Severn catchment in the UK. Various ensemble projections are used together with the HBV hydrological model with direct forcing and also compared to a response surface technique. We consider an ensemble of single-model RCM projections from the current UK Climate Projections (UKCP09); multi-model ensemble RCM projections from the European Union's FP6 ENSEMBLES' project; and a joint probability distribution of precipitation and temperature from a GCM-based perturbed physics ensemble. The ensemble distribution of results show that flood hazard in the Upper Severn is likely to increase compared to present conditions, but the study highlights the differences between the results from different ensemble methods and the strong assumptions made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future river discharge. The results underline the challenges in using the current generation of RCMs for local climate impact studies on flooding. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society