The Real World of Cost-Benefit Analysis: Thirty-Six Questions (and Almost as Many Answers)
The Real World of Cost-Benefit Analysis: Thirty-Six Questions (and Almost as Many Answers)
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成本效益分析的现实世界：三十六个问题（以及几乎同样多的答案）
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Sunstein
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Sunstein
关于成本效益分析的一些最有趣的讨论集中在异常困难的问题上，包括灾难性情景、“厚尾”、极端不确定性、代际公平和长期贴现。然而，由于它在政府实践的现实世界中运作，成本效益分析通常不需要探索最困难的问题，而且当它这样做时，它往往会采用标准化的方法和工具。不是抽象地进行成本效益分析，而是自下而上地进行成本效益分析，即将讨论固定在涉及权衡和估值的具体场景中，这是很有用的。这里提出了 36 个程式化的场景，并探索了如何在实践中处理它们。还讨论了未解决的问题。
Some of the most interesting discussions of cost-benefit analysis focus on exceptionally difficult problems, including catastrophic scenarios, “fat tails,” extreme uncertainty, intergenerational equity, and discounting over long time horizons. As it operates in the actual world of government practice, however, cost-benefit analysis usually does not need to explore the hardest questions, and when it does so, it tends to enlist standardized methods and tools. It is useful to approach cost-benefit analysis not in the abstract but from the bottom up, that is, by anchoring the discussion in specific scenarios involving trade-offs and valuations. Thirty-six stylized scenarios are presented here, alongside an exploration of how they might be handled in practice. Open issues are also discussed.