Estimating effectiveness in HIV prevention trials with a Bayesian hierarchical compound Poisson frailty model.
Estimating effectiveness in HIV prevention trials with a Bayesian hierarchical compound Poisson frailty model.
复制标题
使用贝叶斯分层复合泊松脆弱模型评估艾滋病毒预防试验的有效性。
DOI：
10.1002/sim.6884
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Brown,ElizabethR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coley,RebeccaYates;Brown,ElizabethR
最近的暴露前预防性干预的HIV预防试验结果不一致，可能是由于研究参与者之间的风险异质性。干预有效性最常使用考克斯模型进行评估，该模型比较了人群之间的事件时间。当存在异质性时，这种人群水平的测量低估了处于风险中的个体的干预有效性。我们提出了一个基于似然的贝叶斯分层模型，该模型通过用复合泊松分布脆弱性项解释风险的异质性来估计候选干预措施的个体水平有效性。该模型反映了HIV风险的机制，并允许一些受试者未暴露于HIV，因此在研究期间没有血清转换的风险。我们通过模拟评估模型的性能，并将该模型应用于HIV预防试验的数据。版权所有© 2016约翰威利父子有限公司.
Inconsistent results in recent HIV prevention trials of pre‐exposure prophylactic interventions may be due to heterogeneity in risk among study participants. Intervention effectiveness is most commonly estimated with the Cox model, which compares event times between populations. When heterogeneity is present, this population‐level measure underestimates intervention effectiveness for individuals who are at risk. We propose a likelihood‐based Bayesian hierarchical model that estimates the individual‐level effectiveness of candidate interventions by accounting for heterogeneity in risk with a compound Poisson‐distributed frailty term. This model reflects the mechanisms of HIV risk and allows that some participants are not exposed to HIV and, therefore, have no risk of seroconversion during the study. We assess model performance via simulation and apply the model to data from an HIV prevention trial. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.