Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii
Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1890
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发表时间：
2013-08-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Kitoh, Akio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Murakami, Hiroyuki;Wang, Bin;Kitoh, Akio
由于模型物理方案中存在多种不确定性来源，以及对未来海面温度的不同假设，预测全球变暖对区域热带气旋活动的潜在影响具有挑战性（1）。预测气候变化的一个关键因素是在不同的模式物理方案和不同的海表温度未来模式中得出热带气旋活动未来变化的强有力信号。一套未来变暖实验（2075-2099），使用最先进的高分辨率全球气候模式（1-3），有力地预测了夏威夷群岛周围热带气旋发生频率的增加。基于物理的经验模式分析（3，4）显示，热带气旋发生频率的大幅增加主要与群岛东南部公海上的热带气旋路径向西北方向移动有关。此外，大规模环境条件的显著和强烈变化加强了中太平洋副热带地区的热带气旋活动。这些结果强调了夏威夷群岛未来可能增加的与风暴有关的社会经济和生态系统破坏。
Projections of the potential impacts of global warming on regional tropical cyclone activity are challenging owing to multiple sources of uncertainty in model physical schemes and different assumptions for future sea surface temperatures(1). A key factor in projecting climate change is to derive robust signals of future changes in tropical cyclone activity across different model physical schemes and different future patterns in sea surface temperature. A suite of future warming experiments (2075-2099), using a state-of-the-art high-resolution global climate model(1-3), robustly predicts an increase in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence around the Hawaiian Islands. A physically based empirical model analysis(3,4) reveals that the substantial increase in the likelihood of tropical cyclone frequency is primarily associated with a northwestward shifting of the tropical cyclone track in the open ocean southeast of the islands. Moreover, significant and robust changes in large-scale environmental conditions strengthen in situ tropical cyclone activity in the subtropical central Pacific. These results highlight possible future increases in storm-related socioeconomic and ecosystem damage for the Hawaiian Islands.