Proxy evidence for an El Nino-like response to volcanic forcing
Proxy evidence for an El Nino-like response to volcanic forcing
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DOI：
10.1038/nature02101
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发表时间：
2003-11-20
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Ammann, CM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adams, JB;Mann, ME;Ammann, CM
过去的研究表明火山爆发与随后的厄尔尼诺气候事件之间存在统计联系（1，2）。然而，这种联系仍然存在争议（3-5）。在这里，我们通过使用两种不同的厄尔尼诺活动的古气候重建（8，9）和两个独立的，基于代理的爆发性火山活动年表（5），从公元1649年到现在，为厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）现象（6，7）对爆发性火山活动的影响提供了支持。我们展示了一个显着的，多年的，厄尔尼诺样的反应，在过去的几个世纪里爆炸性的热带火山强迫。结果意味着在火山爆发后的冬季发生厄尔尼诺事件的可能性大约增加了一倍。我们的实证研究结果揭示了热带太平洋海洋-大气系统如何应对外源（自然和人为）辐射强迫。
Past studies have suggested a statistical connection between explosive volcanic eruptions and subsequent El Nino climate events(1,2). This connection, however, has remained controversial(3-5). Here we present support for a response of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon(6,7) to forcing from explosive volcanism by using two different palaeoclimate reconstructions of El Nino activity(8,9) and two independent, proxy-based chronologies of explosive volcanic activity(5) from AD 1649 to the present. We demonstrate a significant, multi-year, El Nino-like response to explosive tropical volcanic forcing over the past several centuries. The results imply roughly a doubling of the probability of an El Nino event occurring in the winter following a volcanic eruption. Our empirical findings shed light on how the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system may respond to exogenous (both natural and anthropogenic) radiative forcing.