Typhoon disaster in China: prediction, prevention, and mitigation
Typhoon disaster in China: prediction, prevention, and mitigation
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-008-9262-2
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发表时间：
2009-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Xie, Botao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Defu;Pang, Liang;Xie, Botao
台风灾害是影响中国经济发展的重要因素之一，影响中国经济发展的灾害超过2.5亿。针对台风灾害预测和防灾减灾的现状，提出了一种新的预测台风极端灾害事件的概率模型——多元复合极值分布（MCEVD）。该模型建立了沿海地区、近海结构和河口城市的预防标准，并为灾害风险管理和决策提供了适当的减灾方案。
Typhoon-induced disaster is one of the most important factors influencing the economic development and more than 250 million in China. In view of the existing state of typhoon disaster prediction, prevention, and mitigation, this paper proposes a new probability model, Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD), to predict typhoon-induced extreme disaster events. This model establishes prevention criteria for coastal areas, offshore structures, and estuarine cities, and provides an appropriate mitigation scheme for disaster risk management and decision-making.