The life of p: "Just significant" results are on the rise
The life of p: "Just significant" results are on the rise
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DOI：
10.1080/17470218.2013.863371
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发表时间：
2013-12-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Nicholls, Michael E. R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Leggett, Nathan C.;Thomas, Nicole A.;Nicholls, Michael E. R.
零假设显著性检验使用看似任意的概率。作为客观地确定被测效果是否可靠的一种手段。在最近的心理学文章中，研究发现，p值在这一临界值附近的代表性过高。目前的研究调查了这种过度表现是最近迫于出版压力的产物，还是一直存在于整个心理学研究中。研究人员检查了1965年和2005年发表在两家著名心理学期刊上的文章。与之前的研究一样，p值的频率为和略低于。与其他范围的p频率相比，0.05大于预期。虽然1965年和2005年公布的数据都存在这种过度代表性，但2005年的比例要大得多。此外，p值接近但大于。与1965年相比，2005年的数据更有可能被四舍五入，或者被错误地报告为显著值。现代统计软件和越来越大的出版压力可以解释这种模式。通过减少对p值的依赖和增加对置信区间和效应大小的报告，可以缓解这个问题。
Null hypothesis significance testing uses the seemingly arbitrary probability of .05 as a means of objectively determining whether a tested effect is reliable. Within recent psychological articles, research has found an overrepresentation of p values around this cut-off. The present study examined whether this overrepresentation is a product of recent pressure to publish or whether it has existed throughout psychological research. Articles published in 1965 and 2005 from two prominent psychology journals were examined. Like previous research, the frequency of p values at and just below .05 was greater than expected compared to p frequencies in other ranges. While this overrepresentation was found for values published in both 1965 and 2005, it was much greater in 2005. Additionally, p values close to but over .05 were more likely to be rounded down to, or incorrectly reported as, significant in 2005 than in 1965. Modern statistical software and an increased pressure to publish may explain this pattern. The problem may be alleviated by reduced reliance on p values and increased reporting of confidence intervals and effect sizes.