An agent-based vertical evacuation model for a near-field tsunami: Choice behavior, logical shelter locations, and life safety
An agent-based vertical evacuation model for a near-field tsunami: Choice behavior, logical shelter locations, and life safety
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.12.018
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Dong, Shangjia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mostafizi, Alireza;Wang, Haizhong;Dong, Shangjia
在近场海啸发生时，垂直疏散可以作为水平疏散的替代保护行动。本文的目的是提出一个基于主体的建模(ABM)框架，以评估卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带(CSZ)9.0级地震近场海啸灾害的垂直疏散行为和避难所位置。根据垂直疏散避难所(VES)的位置，预计死亡率被选为评估垂直疏散有效性的主要标准。此外，从约束的角度评估了最大海啸波高和垂直疏散行为随VES放置位置的变化。结果表明：(1)VES地点的选择将直接影响VES地点的垂直疏散比例；(2)随着避难所距离人口质心的距离，垂直疏散的人数百分比呈指数下降；(3)避难所的位置显著影响总死亡率；(4)疏散人员的流动性的改善，例如更快的步行速度或更短的碾磨时间，将显著降低死亡率，并扩大VES地点的选择范围；(5)当更多的人选择垂直疏散时，总死亡率显著降低。然而，错误放置VE，同时促进垂直疏散行为可能会导致灾难性的死亡率。此外，还研究了VES到海洋的距离、到人口质心的距离和到淹没区域外的水平避难所的距离对总死亡率和疏散效率的影响。这项工作揭示了VES的上述特征与预期死亡率之间的非线性相关性。本研究的结果提供了一个证据驱动的垂直疏散模型框架，以指导市、州和联邦层面的决策者了解垂直疏散行为的动态以及社区垂直疏散避难所位置的选择。
In the event of near-field tsunamis, vertical evacuation can be an alternative protective action to horizontal evacuation. The objective of this paper is to present an agent-based modeling (ABM) framework to evaluate vertical evacuation behavior and shelter locations for a near-field tsunami hazard from a Magnitude 9.0 Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. The expected mortality rate depending on the location of the vertical evacuation shelter (VES) has been chosen as the primary criterion to assess the effectiveness of the vertical evacuation. In addition, maximum tsunami wave height and the vertical evacuation behavior changes with changes in the placement of the VES have been assessed from a constraint point of view. The results revealed that (1) the choice of VES locations will directly impact the proportion of the people who evacuate vertically; (2) The percentage of people who evacuate vertically exponentially drops as the shelter gets farther from the population centroid; (3) the location of shelter significantly impacts the total mortality rates; (4) improvements in evacuees' mobility, such as faster walking speed or shorter milling time, will significantly reduce mortality rate and expand the area of choices for VES locations; and (5) when more people choose to evacuate vertically, the total mortality rate reduces notably. However, wrong placement of VES, and at the same time promoting vertical evacuation behavior can result in catastrophic mortality rates. In addition, a study on the impact of the distance of the VES to the ocean, to the population centroid, and to the horizontal shelters outside of the inundation zone, on the total mortality rate and the evacuation efficiency has been performed. This work reveals the non-linear correlation between the aforementioned characteristics of the VES on the expected mortality rate. The results of this research provide an evidence-driven vertical evacuation modeling framework to guide decision makers at city, state, and federal level to understand the dynamics of vertical evacuation behavior and choice of vertical evacuation shelter locations for a community.