Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties
Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-11-1191-2007
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Musy, Andre
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schaefli, Bettina;Hingray, Benoit;Musy, Andre
本文讨论了气候变化对水资源系统影响分析的两个主要挑战：（一）纳入大量潜在的气候变化情景;（二）量化相关的建模不确定性。气候变化影响建模的方法，并通过应用程序说明在瑞士阿尔卑斯山的水电厂，使用。一个高度冰川化的流域的排放。潜在的气候变化的影响进行了分析的控制期间（1961-1990年）和未来时期（2070-2099年）在一系列的气候变化情景下的系统性能。系统性能通过一组四种类型的模型进行模拟，包括基于全球平均变暖情景的区域气候变化情景的产生，相应的流量模型，冰川表面演变模型和水电管理模型。每个模型类型中固有的建模不确定性分别表征和量化。整体建模的不确定性是通过蒙特卡洛模拟的控制和未来时期的系统行为模拟。这两个时期获得的结果导致的结论是，潜在的气候变化对系统性能有统计上显着的负面影响。
This paper addresses two major challenges in climate change impact analysis on water resources systems: (i) incorporation of a large range of potential climate change scenarios and (ii) quantification of related modelling uncertainties. The methodology of climate change impact modelling is developed and illustrated through application to a hydropower plant in the Swiss Alps that uses the. discharge of a highly glacierised catchment. The potential climate change impacts are analysed in terms of system performance for the control period (1961-1990) and for the future period (2070-2099) under a range of climate change scenarios. The system performance is simulated through a set of four model types, including the production of regional climate change scenarios based on global-mean warming scenarios, the corresponding discharge model, the model of glacier surface evolution and the hydropower management model. The modelling uncertainties inherent in each model type are characterised and quantified separately. The overall modelling uncertainty is simulated through Monte Carlo simulations of the system behaviour for the control and the future period. The results obtained for both periods lead to the conclusion that potential climate change has a statistically significant negative impact on the system performance.