Development of weighting factors for G20 countries. Part 2: estimation of willingness to pay and annual global damage cost
Development of weighting factors for G20 countries. Part 2: estimation of willingness to pay and annual global damage cost
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DOI：
10.1007/s11367-017-1372-1
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Tokimatsu, Koji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Murakami, Kayo;Itsubo, Norihiro;Tokimatsu, Koji
研究目的本文是介绍G20国家货币权重系数（MWFs）研究结果的系列文章的第二部分，G20国家的GDP约占全球GDP的90%。我们开发了他们的MWFs与生命周期影响评估（LCIA），并通过大规模的问卷调查进行评估。我们估计的经济价值的一个单位的损害所造成的人类activity.Methods，以确保MWFs涵盖所有领域的保护所定义的LCIA方法的基础上端点Modeling（人类健康，社会资产，生物多样性和初级生产），我们进行了选择实验，在所有G20国家。我们进行了面对面的访谈，以尽量减少调查偏见，并确保新兴G20国家的受访者理解这些问题。采用互联网调查的方式，从互联网普及率普遍较高的20国集团发达国家的受访者中收集样本。我们分别从所有新兴和所有发达G20国家的200至250和500至600个家庭获得了响应数据。我们总共收到了6400份回复。我们使用随机参数logit模型估计偏好强度。我们计算MWFs的基础上，每个受访者的支付意愿。结果和讨论我们设计的MWFs提供损害的费用，以四个保障主体。除墨西哥的货币属性外，所有估计值在1%的水平上都具有统计学意义。G20的MWF为人类健康23，000美元（每年），社会资产2.5美元（每美元资源），生物多样性110亿美元（每物种），初级生产56亿美元（每1亿吨）。20国集团发达国家和新兴国家之间的差异相当大，后者按购买力平价（美元）计算的价值一般较小。估计全球总的经济年度影响约为5.1万亿美元（6.7%的世界GDP）。结论与以往的研究相比，我们得到了合理和保守的全球规模的MWFs。此外，这项研究中的跨国异质性可能有助于从当前/当地估计中推断未来/全球价值的发展。发达国家内人类健康和社会资产MWF的差异很小，足以允许在它们之间进行国际转让，而生物多样性和初级生产MWF的显著差异是即使在发达国家内也不能进行预先国际转让的一个警告。
Purpose This paper is the second part of a series of articles presenting the results of research on monetary weighting factors (MWFs) for the G20 countries, which together account for approximately 90% of the global GDP. We developed their MWFs with regard to Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) and evaluated them via a large-scale questionnaire survey. We estimated the economic value of one unit of damage caused by human activities.Methods To ensure that the MWFs covered all areas of protection as defined by the LCIA method based on Endpoint Modeling (human health, social assets, biodiversity, and primary production), we conducted a choice experiment in all G20 countries. We conducted face-to-face interviews to minimize survey bias and ensure that the questions were understood by the emerging G20 countries' respondents. Internet surveys were adopted to collect samples from the developed G20 countries' respondents, where Internet diffusion rates are generally high. We obtained response data from 200 to 250 and 500 to 600 households of all the emerging and all the developed G20 countries, respectively. We gathered 6400 responses in all. We estimated preference intensities using the random parameter logit model. We calculated MWFs based on each respondent's willingness to pay.Results and discussion We devised MWFs providing the costs of damage to four safeguard subjects. All the estimated values are statistically significant at the 1% level, with the exception of monetary attributes from Mexico. The MWFs for the G20 are 23,000 USD for human health (per year), 2.5 USD for social assets (per USD of resources), 11 billion USD for biodiversity (per species), and 5.6 billion USD for primary production (per 100 million tons). The differences between the developed and emerging G20 countries are considerable, with the values generally being smaller for the latter in purchasing power parity (USD) terms. The estimated global total economic annual impact was approximately 5.1 trillion USD (6.7% of the world's total GDP).Conclusions We obtained reasonable and conservative global-scale MWFs compared with previous studies. Moreover, the cross-country heterogeneity in this study potentially helps extrapolate future/global value developments from current/local estimates. The variations in human health and social asset MWFs are small enough within developed countries to allow international transfers among them, while significant variations in biodiversity and primary production MWFs are a caveat to up-front international transfers even within developed countries.