Tropical origin of the severe European winter of 1962/1963
Tropical origin of the severe European winter of 1962/1963
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1962/1963 年欧洲严冬的热带根源
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Kunz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Greatbatch;G. Gollan;Thomas Jung;T. Kunz
使用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的大气模式进行了一系列弛豫实验，以分析1962/1963年欧洲的严冬。我们认为，严冬天气与起源于热带太平洋地区（存在弱拉尼娜条件）的波列有关，并被重新定向到欧洲，我们认为这一过程受到准两年振荡（QBO）的强东风相和那年冬天赤道对流层上部异常强东风的综合影响。12月北大西洋涛动（NAO）条件呈负值的微弱趋势，与热带外海面温度和海冰异常有关，可能是一个有利的预处理。波列转向欧洲，最终导致1963年1月底平流层突然变暖。我们认为，在2月的突然变暖事件有助于维持负NAO制度，使恶劣的天气持续了一个月。一个可能的影响，从马登-朱利安振荡，以及内部大气变率的作用，指出。
A set of relaxation experiments using the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric model is used to analyze the severe European winter of 1962/1963. We argue that the severe winter weather was associated with a wave train that originated in the tropical Pacific sector (where weak La Niña conditions were present) and was redirected towards Europe, a process we suggest was influenced by the combined effect of the strong easterly phase of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and unusually strong easterly winds in the upper equatorial troposphere that winter. A weak tendency towards negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions in December, associated with extratropical sea‐surface temperature and sea‐ice anomalies, might have acted as a favourable preconditioning. The redirection of the wave train towards Europe culminated in the stratospheric sudden warming at the end of January 1963. We argue that in February the sudden warming event helped maintain the negative NAO regime, allowing the severe weather to persist for a further month. A possible influence from the Madden–Julian Oscillation, as well as a role for internal atmospheric variability, is noted.