Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2019
Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2019
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DOI：
10.4143/crt.2019.139
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发表时间：
2019-04-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Lee, Eun Sook
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jung, Kyu-Won;Won, Young-Joo;Lee, Eun Sook
PurposeThis study aims to report on cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2019 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden.Materials and MethodsCancer incidence data from 1999 to 2016 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database，and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2017 were obtained from Statistics Korea.癌症发病率和死亡率的预测方法是，将观察到的年龄特异性癌症发病率与观察到的年份拟合线性回归模型，然后将预测的年龄特异性发病率乘以年龄特异性人口。使用Joinpoint回归模型来确定线性趋势在哪一年发生显着变化;我们仅使用最新趋势的数据。结果预计2019年韩国将新增221，347例癌症病例和82，344例癌症死亡。到目前为止，最常见的癌症部位是肺，其次是胃、结肠和直肠、乳腺和肝脏。这五种癌症占韩国癌症总负担的一半。癌症相关的死亡率，最常见的网站是肺，其次是肝脏，结肠和直肠，胃，和pancreat.ConclusionThe发病率的所有癌症在韩国估计逐渐下降。这些对韩国癌症负担的最新估计可能是规划和评估癌症控制计划的重要资源。
PurposeThis study aimed to report on cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2019 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden.Materials and MethodsCancer incidence data from 1999 to 2016 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2017 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. The Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly; we used only the data of the latest trend.ResultsA total of 221,347 new cancer cases and 82,344 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2019. The most common cancer sites thus far have been the lung, followed by the stomach, colon and rectum, breast, and liver. These five cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. For cancer associated mortality, the most common sites were lung, followed by the liver, colon and rectum, stomach, and pancreas.ConclusionThe incidence rate of all cancer in Korea is estimated to decrease gradually. These up-todate estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.