Airborne infectious diseases during infancy and mortality in later life in southern Sweden, 1766-1894
Airborne infectious diseases during infancy and mortality in later life in southern Sweden, 1766-1894
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DOI：
10.1093/ije/dyg061
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发表时间：
2003-04-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Lindström, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bengtsson, T;Lindström, M
研究背景早期生活条件和当前生活条件对晚年死亡率的重要性是利用瑞典南部四个农村教区的历史数据进行评估的。方法采用考克斯回归分析方法，对55-80岁年龄组的死亡率进行分析，并将纵向人口统计学和社会经济学数据（个人和家庭的社会经济学数据）与当地的食物成本和疾病负荷数据相结合（死亡人数= 1398）。结果在以前的论文中，出生年份经历的疾病负荷，以婴儿死亡率衡量，与老年死亡率密切相关，特别是空气传播的传染病的后果。在本文中，在控制了怀孕期间和出生年份的食品价格变化以及怀孕期间母亲的疾病负担之后，这种影响仍然存在。对晚年死亡率的影响来自婴儿死亡率的短期周期和长期下降。发现循环的非对称效应和强阈值效应。以天花和百日咳为主的婴儿死亡率非常高的年份产生了强烈的影响，而温和的变化几乎没有任何影响。出生当年疾病负荷的影响对冬季和夏季出生的儿童尤其强烈。儿童严重暴露于空气传播的传染病，在他们出生的一年有一个更高的风险死于空气传播的传染病在他们的老age.Conclusions这项研究表明，暴露于空气传播的传染病在生命的第一年增加死亡率在55-80岁。
Background The importance of early life conditions and current conditions for mortality in later life was assessed using historical data from four rural parishes in southern Sweden. Both demographic and economic data are valid.Methods Longitudinal demographic and socioeconomic data for individuals and household socioeconomic data from parish registers were combined with local area data on food costs and disease load using a Cox regression framework to analyse the 55-80 year age group mortality (number of deaths = 1398).Results In a previous paper, the disease load experienced during the birth year, measured as the infant mortality rate, was strongly associated with old-age mortality, particularly the outcome of airborne infectious diseases. In the present paper, this impact persisted after controlling for variations in food prices during pregnancy and the birth year, and the disease load on mothers during pregnancy. The impact on mortality in later life stems from both the short-term cycles and the long-term decline in infant mortality. An asymmetrical effect and strong threshold effects were found for the cycles. Years with very high infant mortality, dominated by smallpox and whooping cough, had a strong impact, while modest changes had almost no impact at all. The effects of the disease load during the year of birth were particularly strong for children born during the winter and summer. Children severely exposed to airborne infectious diseases during their birth year had a much higher risk of dying of airborne infectious diseases in their old age.Conclusions This study suggests that exposure to airborne infectious diseases during the first year of life increases mortality at ages 55-80.