Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat
Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1164363
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发表时间：
2009-01-09
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Naylor, Rosamond L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Battisti, David. S.;Naylor, Rosamond L.
较高的生长季节温度会对农业生产力、农场收入和粮食安全产生巨大影响。我们使用了23个全球气候模式的观测数据和输出结果，表明到21世纪末，热带和亚热带地区的生长季节温度将超过1900年至2006年记录的最极端季节温度的可能性很高（> 90%）。在温带地区，有记录以来最热的季节将成为许多地方未来的常态。我们使用历史例子来说明极端季节性高温对粮食系统造成的破坏程度，并表明如果没有足够的适应投资，这些短期事件可能会成为长期趋势。
Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and food security. We used observational data and output from 23 global climate models to show a high probability (> 90%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006. In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations. We used historical examples to illustrate the magnitude of damage to food systems caused by extreme seasonal heat and show that these short- run events could become long-term trends without sufficient investments in adaptation.