AGE AND PRODUCTIVITY AMONG SCIENTISTS
AGE AND PRODUCTIVITY AMONG SCIENTISTS
复制标题
DOI：
10.1126/science.123.3200.724
复制
发表时间：
1956-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
DENNIS, W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
DENNIS, W
30岁，40岁，50岁，60岁，70岁，8070岁，10岁，32岁，56岁，100岁，80岁，7岁，28岁，52岁，70岁，87岁，100岁，总的寿命是很大的，即使对这群非常杰出的男性来说也是如此。分布向左倾斜，类似于正态分布曲线的上端。由于分布的性质，通常的变率度量方法是不合适的，因此没有提出。接下来，对我的数据进行处理，以显示每十年结束时产生的最终参考书目的比例。在下面的数字中，需要注意的是，70岁组的书目在70岁时关闭，80岁组的书目在80岁时关闭，如表1所示。然而，如果我们基于死亡时的参考书目，而不是70岁和80岁时的参考书目，得到的百分比只会有轻微的改变。所得结果如表2所示。我们可以看到，这些人一生的工作只有很小一部分是在30岁之前完成的。他们大约三分之一的出版物是在40岁之前出版的，值得注意的是，他们近一半的作品是在50岁之后出版的。年龄在20岁到70岁之间的70岁年龄组平均每人发表92.8篇论文。在20岁到80岁之间，80岁的人平均每人发表102.2篇论文。这一对比表明，像我们所讨论的这样有才干的人，在70岁以后多活10年，就能发表大约10篇科学论文。检验这个问题的另一种方法是比较80岁组在70岁时的记录和他们自己在80岁时的记录。在70岁到80岁之间，80岁年龄组的平均参考书目从89.1篇增加到102.2篇，增加了13.1篇。
Age 30 40 50 60 70 8070-yeargroup 10 32 56 80 100 80-year group 7 28 52 70 87 100 decade, and over the total life span, is great, even for this group of highly emi-nent men. The distributions are skewed to the left, resembling the upper end of a normal distribution curve. Because of the nature of the distributions, the usual measures of variability are not appropri-ate and, hence, are not presented. Next, my data are treated so as to show the proportion of the eventual bibliography that is produced by the close of each decade. In the figures that follow, it should be noted that the bibliographies of the 70-year group were closed at age 70 and those of the 80-year group at age 80, as in Table 1. However, the percentages obtained would be only slightly altered if we based them on bibliographies at death rather than at ages 70 and 80. The results obtained are shown in Table 2. It will be observed that a very small part of the lifework of these men was completed by age 30. About one-third of their publications had appeared by age 40, It is notable that nearly one-half of their output appeared after age 50.Between ages 20 and 70 members of the 70-year group produced a mean of 92.8 papers each. Between ages 20 and 80 the 80-year group published a mean of 102.2 papers per person. This com-parison suggests that, for a man of the calibre with which we are dealing, an additional decade of life beyond age 70 results in the production of approximately 10 scientific papers. Another way to examine this problem is to compare the record of the 80-year group at age 70 with its own record at age 80. Between age 70 and age 80, the mean bibliography of the 80-year group increased from 89.1 to 102.2, a gain of 13.1 papers.