Reaching a Consensus
Reaching a Consensus
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DOI：
10.1080/01621459.1974.10480137
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发表时间：
1974-03
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
M. Degroot
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Degroot
摘要考虑一群必须一起充当团队或委员会的个人，并假设该组中的每个人都有自己的主观概率分布，以分配某些参数的未知价值。提出了一个模型，该模型描述了该小组如何通过汇总其个人意见来就参数达成共识。明确描述导致共识的过程，并明确确定所达到的共同分布。当小组的每个成员的意见仅表示参数的点估计而不是概率分布时，该模型也可以应用于达成共识的问题。
Abstract Consider a group of individuals who must act together as a team or committee, and suppose that each individual in the group has his own subjective probability distribution for the unknown value of some parameter. A model is presented which describes how the group might reach agreement on a common subjective probability distribution for the parameter by pooling their individual opinions. The process leading to the consensus is explicitly described and the common distribution that is reached is explicitly determined. The model can also be applied to problems of reaching a consensus when the opinion of each member of the group is represented simply as a point estimate of the parameter rather than as a probability distribution.