Nuisance foam events and Phaeocystis globosa blooms in Dutch coastal waters analyzed with fuzzy logic
Nuisance foam events and Phaeocystis globosa blooms in Dutch coastal waters analyzed with fuzzy logic
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmarsys.2010.05.003
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发表时间：
2010-11-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Peperzak, L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Blauw, A. N.;Los, F. J.;Peperzak, L.
球形棕囊藻是一种令人讨厌的藻类，因为它会在与沿海水华相关的海滩上产生泡沫。棕囊藻模型考虑了其水华动态，但没有考虑泡沫形成。人们对泡沫形成的过程知之甚少，这限制了传统确定性模型方法的适用性。因此，我们应用模糊逻辑来模拟观察到的北海沿海水域中观察到的棕囊藻水华动态以及邻近海滩上的泡沫形成。估计棕囊藻水华的起始发生时间为：平均混合层日辐照度超过约 25 至 35 mu mol 光子 m(-2) s(-1) 尽管水华终止与养分耗尽并不相符，但是在营养物可用性较高的监测站，水华峰值强度较高 在棕囊藻水华期间和之后，当风向为内陆时，荷兰海滩上发生了泡沫事件 2003 年至 2007 年期间，模型正确预测了 90% 观测到的泡沫事件，但仍有许多泡沫事件发生在荷兰海滩上。误报 模糊逻辑方法被证明有助于筛选和调整有关棕囊藻动力学和相关泡沫事件的假设 所得模型传达了当前对泡沫形成的理解，增强了这些事件的可预测性，并为更详细的建模工作提供了基础 (C) 2010 Elsevier BV 保留所有权利
Phaeocystis globosa is a nuisance algal species because It can cause foam on beaches which are associated with coastal blooms Models of Phaeocystis have considered its bloom dynamics but not the foam formation The process of foam formation is poorly understood which limits the suitability of traditional deterministic model approaches We therefore applied fuzzy logic to simulate observed Phaeocystis bloom dynamics in coastal waters of the North Sea and foam formation on adjacent beaches Phaeocystts bloom initiation is estimated to occur when the mean mixed-layer daily irradiance exceeds circa 25 to 35 mu mol photons m(-2) s(-1) Peak bloom intensity was higher at monitoring stations with higher nutrient availability although bloom termination did not coincide with nutrient depletion Foam events occurred on Dutch beaches during and following Phaeocystis blooms when the wind direction was landward Over the period 2003-2007 90% of observed foam events were correctly predicted by the model however there were many false positives The fuzzy logic approach proved helpful in screening and adjusting hypotheses on the dynamics of Phaeocystis and associated foam events The resulting model communicates current understanding of foam formation enhances the predictability of these events and provides a basis for more detailed modelling efforts (C) 2010 Elsevier BV All rights reserved