Predicting the consequences of nutrient reduction on the eutrophication status of the North Sea
Predicting the consequences of nutrient reduction on the eutrophication status of the North Sea
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.014
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发表时间：
2010-04-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Wakelin, Sarah L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lenhart, Hermann-J.;Mills, David K.;Wakelin, Sarah L.
本文介绍了 2007 年在洛斯托夫特举办的 OSPAR 富营养化模型闭会期间通讯组 (ICG-EMO) 研讨会的结果。研讨会的目的是比较不同减排情景下多个北海生态系统模型的结果。为了实现模型结果的可比性，要求参与者使用最短的旋转时间、源自更广泛领域模型的通用边界条件以及一组通用强迫数据，特别强调河流养分负荷的完整覆盖。根据 OSPAR 的要求，得出了河流负荷，同时考虑了 1985 年至 2002 年间各国已实现的削减量。首先，对采用综合程序的2002年净初级生产的不同水平分布进行了比较。此外，还显示了后播运行和 50% 养分减少运行之间净初级生产力的差异。为了比较当地结果，针对选定的目标区域提供了后报和减少运行，并根据参数 DIN、DIP 和叶绿素的综合程序评估水平进行评分。最后，将多个模型的评估参数底部氧浓度的时间发展与荷兰 Terschelling 135 监测站的数据进行比较。研讨会的结论是，模型有助于支持 OSPAR 综合程序的应用。专门为研讨会制定的比较练习要求根据综合程序的首次应用对先前被分类为问题领域的预定义目标领域进行模型评估。不同模型之间建模评估参数的响应性有所不同，但总体而言，该参数在沿海水域而不是近海水域显示出更大的响应，这在某些情况下导致实现无问题状态的目标。因此，对模型结果应用综合程序进行参数评估，为测试北海流域富营养化减少措施开辟了新的潜力。研讨会的结果是，提出了进一步的工作来确认和增强对结果的信心。一个普遍的困难领域似乎是使用 SPM 数据进行模型强制，以达到现实的光衰减水平。最后，将规定的旋转程序的效果与多年的长期运行进行比较，并强调对最终营养浓度的影响。 (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
In this paper the results from a workshop of the OSPAR Intersessional Correspondence Group on Eutrophication Modelling (ICG-EMO) held in Lowestoft in 2007 are presented. The aim of the workshop was to compare the results of a number of North Sea ecosystem models under different reduction scenarios. In order to achieve comparability of model results the participants were requested to use a minimum spin-up time, common boundary conditions which were derived from a wider-domain model, and a set of common forcing data, with special emphasis on a complete coverage of river nutrient loads. Based on the OSPAR requirements river loads were derived, taking into account the reductions already achieved between 1985 and 2002 for each country. First, for the year 2002, for which the Comprehensive Procedure was applied, the different horizontal distributions of net primary production are compared. Furthermore, the differences in the net primary production between the hindcast run and the 50% nutrient reduction runs are displayed. In order to compare local results, the hindcast and reduction runs are presented for selected target areas and scored against the Comprehensive Procedure assessment levels for the parameters DIN, DIP and chlorophyll. Finally, the temporal development of the assessment parameter bottom oxygen concentration from several models is compared with data from the Dutch monitoring station Terschelling 135.The conclusion from the workshop was that models are useful to support the application of the OSPAR Comprehensive Procedure. The comparative exercise formulated specifically for the workshop required models to be evaluated for pre-defined target areas previously classified as problem areas according to the first application of the Comprehensive Procedure. The responsiveness of the modelled assessment parameters varied between different models but in general the parameter showed a larger response in coastal rather than in offshore waters, which in some cases lead to the goal to achieve a non-problem status. Therefore, the application of the Comprehensive Procedure on model results for parameter assessment opens a new potential in testing eutrophication reduction measures within the North Sea catchment.As a result of the workshop further work was proposed to confirm and bolster confidence in the results. One general field of difficulty appeared to be the model forcing with SPM data in order to achieve realistic levels of light attenuation. Finally, effects of the prescribed spin-up procedure are compared against a long-term run over many years and consequences on the resulting initial nutrient concentrations are highlighted. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.