Benefits of mercury controls for the United States
Benefits of mercury controls for the United States
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1514395113
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发表时间：
2016-01-12
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Selin, Noelle E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Giang, Amanda;Selin, Noelle E.
汞污染对人类和生态系统健康都构成了风险。因此，控制汞污染已成为全球和国家两级的政策目标。我们开发了一种评估方法，将全球范围的大气化学传输模型与区域范围的经济模型联系起来，以持续评估全球（联合国汞问题水俣公约）和国内[汞和空气毒性标准（MATS）]政策对美国的潜在好处，这些政策被视为避免汞相关的不利健康终点的经济收益。这一方法试图追踪政策到影响的路径，同时考虑到不确定性和知识差距，并采用适合政策的边界假设。我们预计，到2050年，《水俣公约》为受影响的个人带来的累计终身效益为3390亿美元（2005年美元），在我们的敏感性情景中，范围从14亿美元到5750亿美元。到2050年，美国累计实现的整体经济效益为1040亿美元，范围从600万美元到1710亿美元不等。预计水俣效益是国内政策预计效益的两倍多。这一相对效益对若干不确定性和可变性具有稳健性，效益比（水俣/MATS）的范围约为1.4至3。然而，我们发现，对于那些消费当地捕获的淡水鱼从美国，而不是海洋和河口鱼从全球市场，从美国的利益大于全球行动，这表明国内政策是重要的，以保护这些人口。每减少一兆克的排放，我们的国内政策情景导致美国的收益比我们的全球情景高出一个数量级，进一步突出了国内行动的重要性。
Mercury pollution poses risks for both human and ecosystem health. As a consequence, controlling mercury pollution has become a policy goal on both global and national scales. We developed an assessment method linking global-scale atmospheric chemical transport modeling to regional-scale economic modeling to consistently evaluate the potential benefits to the United States of global (UN Minamata Convention on Mercury) and domestic [Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS)] policies, framed as economic gains from avoiding mercury-related adverse health endpoints. This method attempts to trace the policies-to-impacts path while taking into account uncertainties and knowledge gaps with policy-appropriate bounding assumptions. We project that cumulative lifetime benefits from the Minamata Convention for individuals affected by 2050 are $339 billion (2005 USD), with a range from $1.4 billion to $575 billion in our sensitivity scenarios. Cumulative economy-wide benefits to the United States, realized by 2050, are $104 billion, with a range from $6 million to $171 billion. Projected Minamata benefits are more than twice those projected from the domestic policy. This relative benefit is robust to several uncertainties and variabilities, with the ratio of benefits (Minamata/MATS) ranging from approximate to 1.4 to 3. However, we find that for those consuming locally caught freshwater fish from the United States, rather than marine and estuarine fish from the global market, benefits are larger from US than global action, suggesting domestic policies are important for protecting these populations. Per megagram of prevented emissions, our domestic policy scenario results in US benefits about an order of magnitude higher than from our global scenario, further highlighting the importance of domestic action.