A minimal stochastic model for influenza evolution -: art. no. P07008
A minimal stochastic model for influenza evolution -: art. no. P07008
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DOI：
10.1088/1742-5468/2005/07/p07008
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发表时间：
2005-07-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Franz, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tria, F;Lässig, M;Franz, S
我们介绍并讨论了基于最小个体的流感动力学模型。该模型考虑了针对病毒株的特异性免疫的影响，还考虑了感染性随机性以及最近文献中提出的短暂病毒株超越免疫的存在。我们通过模拟表明，所得模型多年来表现出病毒株的替代，但它们的差异仍然有限。我们还表明，放弃这些特征中的任何一个都会导致完全不同的行为，从而导致疾病的灭绝、病毒株的增殖或它们的分化。
We introduce and discuss a minimal individual based model for influenza dynamics. The model takes into account the effects of specific immunization against viral strains, but also infectivity randomness and the presence of a short lived strain-transcending immunity recently suggested in the literature. We show by simulations that the resulting model exhibits substitution of viral strains along the years, but that their divergence remains bounded. We also show that dropping any of these features results in a drastically different behaviour, leading either to the extinction of the disease, to the proliferation of the viral strains or to their divergence.