Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections
Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections
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气候变化、海洋资源和智利小社区：建立联系
DOI：
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
R. Thorpe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
SM van Leeuwen;H. Salgado;JL Bailey;J. Beecham;J. Iriarte;L. García;R. Thorpe
气候变化正在影响大规模的海洋过程。目前尚不清楚这些变化将如何以及何时影响那些依赖海洋资源的人。在这里，我们使用端到端建模来跟踪海洋生态系统预期变化对特定小社区的影响：智利Ancud海湾更广泛地区的Cochamó。这一地区对智利渔业和水产养殖业很重要，科查莫依赖低营养级和高营养级海洋资源。我们应用GOTM-ERSEM-BFM耦合水文地球化学水柱模型来衡量低营养水平海洋生态群落对自下而上的压力源（气候变化，海洋酸化）的反应，再加上现有的Ecopath与Ecosim模型的区域，其中包括自上而下的压力源（渔业）。社会科学家还使用参与式建模（系统思维和贝叶斯信念网络）来确定Co chamó居民的关键资源，并评估社区对关键资源可能变化的脆弱性。模拟结果表明，鞭毛虫浮游植物丰度的增加将以其他物种（特别是硅藻）为代价，导致有害藻类大量繁殖的风险更大。在该模型中，气候变化和酸化都略微增加了初级生产。较高营养级的结果表明，一些目标中上层资源将减少（而底栖资源可能受益），但这些影响可能会通过强有力的渔业管理努力得到缓解。预测模型表明，Cochamó居民预期海洋生态系统的变化，但可能的适应战略存在分歧。关于气候变化影响的量化，建议根据本文确定的主要威胁，对具体的当地物种进行详细的实验研究。
Climate change is affecting large-scale oceanic processes. How and when these changes will impact those reliant on marine resources is not yet clear. Here we use end-to-end modeling to track the impacts of expected changes through the marine ecosystem on a specific, small community: Cochamó, in the Gulf of Ancud wider area, Chile. This area is important for Chilean fisheries and aquaculture, with Cochamó reliant on both lower and upper trophic level marine resources. We applied the GOTM-ERSEM-BFM coupled hydro-biogeochemical watercolumn model to gauge lower-trophic level marine ecological community response to bottom-up stressors (climate change, ocean acidification), coupled to an existing Ecopath with Ecosim model for the area, which included top-down stressors (fishing). Social scientists also used participatory modeling (Systems Thinking and Bayesian Belief Networking) to identify key resources for Co chamó residents and to assess the community’s vulnerability to possible changes in key resources. Modeling results suggest that flagellate phytoplankton abundance will increase at the cost of other species (particularly diatoms), resulting in a greater risk of harmful algae blooms. Both climate change and acidification slightly increased primary production in the model. Higher trophic level results indicate that some targeted pelagic resources will decline (while benthic ones may benefit), but that these effects might be mitigated by strong fisheries management efforts. Participatory modeling suggests that Cochamó inhabitants anticipate marine ecosystem changes but are divided about possible adaptation strategies. For climate change impact quantification, detailed experimental studies are recommended based on the dominant threats identified here, with specific local species.