Missing Novelty in Drug Development
Missing Novelty in Drug Development
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DOI：
10.1093/rfs/hhab024
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发表时间：
2021-03-18
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Papanikolaou, Dimitris
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Krieger, Joshua;Li, Danielle;Papanikolaou, Dimitris
我们提供的证据表明，风险规避导致制药公司投资不足的根本性创新。我们介绍了一种新的衡量药物新奇的化学相似性的基础上，并表明，公司面临的风险-回报权衡：新药候选人不太可能获得FDA批准，但基于更有价值的专利。与昂贵的外部融资的简单模型一致，我们表明，对公司净资产的积极冲击导致公司开发更多的新药。这表明，即使是大公司也可能表现得好像他们是风险厌恶的，减少了他们对潜在有价值的激进创新的投资意愿。
We provide evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We introduce a new measure of drug novelty based on chemical similarity and show that firms face a risk-reward trade-off: novel drug candidates are less likely to obtain FDA approval but are based on more valuable patents. Consistent with a simple model of costly external finance, we show that a positive shock to firms' net worth leads firms to develop more novel drugs. This suggests that even large firms may behave as though they are risk averse, reducing their willingness to investment in potentially valuable radical innovation.