Modeling Zika Virus Transmission Dynamics: Parameter Estimates, Disease Characteristics, and Prevention.
Modeling Zika Virus Transmission Dynamics: Parameter Estimates, Disease Characteristics, and Prevention.
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寨卡病毒传播动力学建模：参数估计、疾病特征和预防。
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-019-46218-4
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Vaidya,NaveenK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rahman,Munsur;Bekele-Maxwell,Kidist;Cates,LeAnnaL;Banks,HT;Vaidya,NaveenK
由于数据有限，与寨卡病毒（ZIKV）传播动力学相关的参数仍存在很大不确定性。从数据中的有限信息估计大量参数可能无法提供有关 ZIKV 的有用知识。在这里，我们开发了一种方法，利用 ZIKV 动力学的数学模型和复杂步骤导数逼近技术来识别可以从可用数据估计的参数。将我们的方法应用于法属波利尼西亚和雅浦岛 ZIKV 爆发的流行病数据，我们确定了可以从这些岛屿数据中估计的参数。我们的结果表明，可以从给定数据集估计的参数以及这些参数的估计值因岛而异。我们的方法使我们能够以合理的置信区间估计一些 ZIKV 相关参数。我们还计算出各岛屿的基本再生数为 2.03 至 3.20。此外，使用我们的模型，我们评估了潜在的预防策略，发现通过将蚊子与人类的接触减少至少 60% 或将蚊子死亡率增加至少基本情况的三倍，可以将峰值流行率降低至近 10%。通过这些预防措施，预计最终爆发规模可以忽略不计，从而成功控制寨卡病毒流行。
Because of limited data, much remains uncertain about parameters related to transmission dynamics of Zika virus (ZIKV). Estimating a large number of parameters from the limited information in data may not provide useful knowledge about the ZIKV. Here, we developed a method that utilizes a mathematical model of ZIKV dynamics and the complex-step derivative approximation technique to identify parameters that can be estimated from the available data. Applying our method to epidemic data from the ZIKV outbreaks in French Polynesia and Yap Island, we identified the parameters that can be estimated from these island data. Our results suggest that the parameters that can be estimated from a given data set, as well as the estimated values of those parameters, vary from Island to Island. Our method allowed us to estimate some ZIKV-related parameters with reasonable confidence intervals. We also computed the basic reproduction number to be from 2.03 to 3.20 across islands. Furthermore, using our model, we evaluated potential prevention strategies and found that peak prevalence can be reduced to nearly 10% by reducing mosquito-to-human contact by at least 60% or increasing mosquito death by at least a factor of three of the base case. With these preventions, the final outbreak-size is predicted to be negligible, thereby successfully controlling ZIKV epidemics.