Climate change impact on major crop yield and water footprint under CMIP6 climate projections in repeated drought and flood areas in Thailand
Climate change impact on major crop yield and water footprint under CMIP6 climate projections in repeated drought and flood areas in Thailand
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150741
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发表时间：
2021-10-15
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Wang, Can
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arunrat, Noppol;Sereenonchai, Sukanya;Wang, Can
在当地尺度上了解作物产量和水分需求以应对未来气候，对于制定更精确和适当的适应战略至关重要。从这个角度出发，对泰国北部下游地区反复发生的干旱和洪水事件进行了调查。该研究的目的是评估气候变化对主要作物产量和水足迹的影响。本文选择了来自耦合模式比对项目（CMIP6）第六阶段的5个全球环流模型数据集，即共享社会经济路径（ssp）。利用SSP245和SSP585情景下的近（2015-2039）、中（2040-2069）和远（2070-2100）3个未来期对未来主要作物产量和WF变化进行预测。在这两个情景下，预估降水和最高、最低气温在所有时段均增加。在SSP245方案下，灌区水稻产量在3个预测期内呈逐步上升趋势，而在SSP585方案下，中远期产量呈下降趋势。在SSP585处理下，第一和第二季水稻产量预计减少-6.0% ~ -17.7%。幸运的是，在SSP245下，这些水稻的产量有望在不久的将来增加3.0%至4.3%。种植玉米、大豆或绿豆代替第二种水稻作物对未来气候变化的负面影响较小。从种植水稻改为每年种植两次玉米和种植木薯，在雨养地区更受欢迎。未来WF变化与未来作物产量变化相关；因此，粮食产量的减少是由于作物产量的增加，反之亦然。玉米、大豆、绿豆和木薯产量的总WFs约为水稻产量的一半，表明这些作物在旱季是合适的替代品。(c) 2021 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
Understanding crop yield and water requirements in response to the future climate at the local scale is essential to develop more precise and appropriate adaptation strategies. From this perspective, repeated drought and flood events in the lower north of Thailand were investigated. The objectives of the study were to evaluate the impact of climate change on major crop yields and the water footprint (WF). Five global circulation model datasets from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), known as Shared Socioeconomic Path-ways (SSPs), were selected. Three future periods: near (2015-2039), mid (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2100) under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios were used to predict the major crop yields and WF changes in the future. The precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were projected to increase in all pe-riods under both scenarios. Rice yields in irrigated areas were predicted to rise gradually over the three projection periods under SSP245 but decline in mid and far-future periods under SSP585. There was a predicted reduction of first and second rice crop yields by -6.0% to -17.7% under SSP585. Fortunately, those rice yields were expected to increase in the near-future period under SSP245 by 3.0% to 4.3%. Growing maize, soybean, or mung bean in-stead of a second rice crop will have a less negative impact on future climate change. Changing from growing rice to be planting maize twice per year and growing cassava had increased favorability in rain-fed areas. The WF changes in the future were associated with future crop yield changes; therefore, the decrease in WFs was due to an increase in crop yield and vice-versa. The total WFs of maize, soybean, mung bean, and cassava production were roughly half that of rice production, indicating that these crops are suitable alternatives in the dry season. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.