Progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and predictability of weather and climate in China (2007–2011)
Progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and predictability of weather and climate in China (2007–2011)
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DOI：
10.1007/s00376-012-1204-y
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发表时间：
2012-08
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Feifan Zhou;R. Ding;G. Feng;Zuntao Fu;W. Duan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Feifan Zhou;R. Ding;G. Feng;Zuntao Fu;W. Duan
中国非线性大气动力学及相关天气气候可预报性研究的最新进展（2007-2011年），将非线性大气动力学研究的主要成果归纳为两类：（1）基于对简化控制方程的解的分析的进展，例如NAO的动力学，阻塞起始的最佳前兆，（2）在资料分析方面的进展，如波动和破纪录温度事件的非线性分析、极端事件的长期相关和探测动力学突变的新方法等。（1）非线性局部李雅普诺夫指数（NLLE）在天气和气候预报中的应用;（2）条件非线性最优扰动（hocP）在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）预报、集合预报、这些研究成果为进一步认识大气运动的动力学和非线性机制，发展数值模式，提高天气气候事件的预报水平提供了新的思路。
Recent progress in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and related predictability of weather and climate in China (2007–2011) are briefly introduced in this article.Major achievements in the study of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics have been classified into two types: (1) progress based on the analysis of solutions of simplified control equations, such as the dynamics of NAO, the optimal precursors for blocking onset, and the behavior of nonlinear waves, and (2) progress based on data analyses, such as the nonlinear analyses of fluctuations and recording-breaking temperature events, the long-range correlation of extreme events, and new methods of detecting abrupt dynamical change.Major achievements in the study of predictability include the following: (1) the application of nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents (NLLE) to weather and climate predictability; (2) the application of condition nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) to the studies of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions, ensemble forecasting, targeted observation, and sensitivity analysis of the ecosystem; and (3) new strategies proposed for predictability studies.The results of these studies have provided greater understanding of the dynamics and nonlinear mechanisms of atmospheric motion, and they represent new ideas for developing numerical models and improving the forecast skill of weather and climate events.