Moving Sea Ice Prediction Forward Via Community Intercomparison
Moving Sea Ice Prediction Forward Via Community Intercomparison
复制标题
通过社区比对推进海冰预测
DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-21-0159.1
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Massonnet, François
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Steele, Michael;Eicken, Hajo;Bhatt, Uma;Bieniek, Peter;Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Ed;Wiggins, Helen;Turner-Bogren, Betsy;Hamilton, Lawrence;Little, Joseph;Massonnet, François
海冰预测网络第二阶段（SIPN2）是一个多机构的国际合作项目，利用多学科方法，包括建模、数据分析和科学网络，在泛北极、泛南极和区域空间尺度上比较季节性海冰预测方法和结果。SIPN2以海冰预测网络第一阶段（2014 - 2017年）的经验为基础，从那时起扩大了活动范围，包括社区研讨会、讲习班和关于季节性海冰预测主题的广泛研究。SIPN2的核心活动和产品是每年夏季（6 - 8月）开发和发布的海冰展望（SIO）。SIO是一个工具，有兴趣的个人和研究团体可以提交海冰状况的季节性预测；然后根据所采用的预测方法收集和分类：(i)动态建模，（ii）统计建模（包括机器学习）和（iii）启发式方法。要求在3个日期预测9月份泛北极平均海冰范围（SIE）： 5月1日、6月1日和7月1日。(SIE定义为海冰浓度至少为15%的所有模型网格单元的面积总和。9月是冰融化季节的结束，此时SIE处于季节性最小值。)SIO预测通常使用从1978年末至今的卫星无源微波亮度温度记录导出的SIE进行验证。虽然在卫星观测期间，北极SIE在所有月份都呈下降趋势（9月最为明显），但在泛北极和区域尺度上，其程度每年变化很大。SIPN下的工作与了解海冰参数的趋势和变率有关。区域尺度的变化对包括土著社区、渔业、航运和国家安全利益在内的各种利益攸关方都特别感兴趣。最近，sin的范围扩大到包括南大洋季节性海冰预测，其中SIE具有明显的区域异常、强烈的年际变率和泛南极尺度上的轻微正趋势。SIO还扩大了对其他变量的预测，如冰退缩和前进的时间。有几项研究分析了SIO预测，将其与观察结果以及基于持久性或线性趋势等简单方案的预测进行了比较（Stroeve et al. 2014; Hamilton and Stroeve 2016）。2021年1月21日至22日，首届SIO贡献者论坛作为在线研讨会举行，由美国北极研究联盟（ARCUS）主办。有来自10个国家的70名与会者，包括SIO贡献者和SIPN2领导团队。会议在这两天的上午（太平洋时间）和第一天的晚上（太平洋时间）举行，以便与欧洲和东亚时区的同事一起参加。会议包括预先录制的演讲、全体会议和闪电会谈，以及分组讨论。议程和与会者名单可在www上找到。arcus。org/sipn/meetings/2021/contributors-workshop。在线演示不公开发布，因为这个论坛的重点是思想和信息的自由交流，包括
The Sea Ice Prediction Network—Phase 2 (SIPN2) is a multiagency international effort to compare seasonal sea ice prediction methods and results at pan-Arctic, pan-Antarctic, and regional spatial scales using a multidisciplinary approach that includes modeling, data analysis, and scientific networks. SIPN2 builds on lessons learned during the first phase of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (2014–17), and since then has expanded in scope with activities that have included community seminars, workshops, and extensive research on the topic of seasonal sea ice prediction.A central SIPN2 activity and product is a Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) developed and released for each summer month (June–August). The SIO is a vehicle for interested individuals and research groups to submit a seasonal prediction of sea ice conditions; these are then collected and categorized based on the prediction method employed:(i) dynamical modeling,(ii) statistical modeling (including machine learning), and (iii) heuristic methods. Predictions of pan-Arctic September mean sea ice extent (SIE) are requested on three dates: 1 May, 1 June, and 1 July.(SIE is defined as the summed area of all model grid cells with a sea ice concentration of at least 15%. September represents the end of the ice melt season when SIE is at its seasonal minimum.) SIO predictions are typically validated using SIE derived from the satellite passive microwave brightness temperature record that extends from late 1978 to the present. While Arctic SIE has trended downward over the period of satellite observations in all months (and most strongly in September), extent at both the pan-Arctic and regional scales is highly variable from year to year. Work under SIPN is relevant to understanding both the trends and variability of sea ice parameters. Regional-scale variability is of particular interest to a variety of stakeholders, including indigenous communities, fisheries, shipping, and national security interests. More recently, the scope of SIPN has expanded to include Southern Ocean seasonal sea ice prediction, where SIE is characterized by pronounced regional anomalies, strong interannual variability, and a slight positive trend at the pan-Antarctic scale. The SIO has also expanded to include the prediction of other variables such as the timing of ice retreat and advance. Several studies have analyzed SIO predictions, comparing them with observations and with predictions based on simple schemes such as persistence or linear trends (Stroeve et al. 2014; Hamilton and Stroeve 2016). On 21–22 January 2021, the first-ever SIO Contributors Forum was held as an online workshop, hosted by the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS). There were 70 participants from 10 countries, including SIO contributors and the SIPN2 leadership team. Sessions were held in the morning (Pacific time) on both days, and in the evening on the first day (Pacific time) to facilitate participation with colleagues in both European and East Asian time zones. The meeting included a mix of prerecorded presentations, plenary and lightning talks, and breakout group discussions. The agenda and list of participants may be found at www. arcus. org/sipn/meetings/2021/contributors-workshop. Online presentations were not publicly posted, since this forum focused on the free exchange of ideas and information, including