Projected changes in the Caspian Sea level for the 21st century based on the latest AOGCM simulations
Projected changes in the Caspian Sea level for the 21st century based on the latest AOGCM simulations
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根据最新的 AOGCM 模拟预测 21 世纪里海平面的变化
DOI：
10.1029/2006gl025943
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发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
F. Giorgi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Elguindi;F. Giorgi
我们使用7个大气-海洋环流模式(AOGCM)的全球气候变化模拟结果来评估在不同温室气体(GHG)排放情景(A1b和A2)下21世纪里海盆地水文收支的可能变化以及里海海平面(CSL)的相应变化。尽管大多数模型预测伏尔加河流域的降水量会增加，但大多数人估计CSL会稳步下降。伏尔加河流域是流入里海的大部分径流来源。这是由于陆地和里海表面的蒸散量大幅增加。到21世纪末，基于模型的估计的整体平均值表明，在所分析的两种情况下，中超联赛将下降9米。如果不采取适应或缓解措施，这可能会对周围地区造成潜在的毁灭性影响。
We use output from global climate change simulations with seven Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to assess possible changes in Caspian Sea basin hydrologic budget and corresponding changes in the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) for the 21st century under different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (A1b and A2). Although most models project an increase in precipitation over the Volga river basin, where most of the runoff into the Caspian Sea is generated, a steady decline in the CSL is mostly estimated. This is due to large increases in evapotranspiration over land and over the Caspian Sea surface. By the end of the 21st century, the ensemble average of the model‐based estimates suggest a 9 meter drop in the CSL for both scenarios analyzed. This could be potentially devastating for the surrounding region if no adaptation or mitigation measures are taken.