Effect of response surface parameter variation on structural reliability estimates
Effect of response surface parameter variation on structural reliability estimates
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DOI：
10.1016/s0167-4730(02)00013-9
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发表时间：
2001-01-01
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Melchers, RE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guan, XL;Melchers, RE
在复杂结构的可靠性评估中，响应面方法被认为是估计实际但隐含的极限状态函数的一种方法。通常，响应面由多项式函数构造，并在多个点处与隐函数相拟合。这些点的位置被认为是一个问题，但在文献中几乎没有注意到改变它们的位置的影响。本文用几个简单的例子来说明可能的影响。需要指出的是，根据点的选择，概率可能被低估或高估，但在任何一种情况下都不能给出关于点选择的明确指导。一个特别令人不安的特征是，对于某些类型的问题，当点的位置改变时，概率估计可能会不稳定。这一点通过一个之前讨论得很好的例子进行了演示。(C)2002爱思唯尔科学有限公司。保留所有权利。
In the reliability estimation of complex structures, response surface methodology has been suggested as a way to estimate the actual but implicit limit state function. Typically the response surface is constructed from a polynomial function and fitted to the implicit function at a number of points. The location of these points has been noted as being an issue but the effect of varying their location has had little attention in the literature. In the present paper some simple examples are used to indicate possible effects. It is noted that the probability can be both under- and over-estimated, depending on the choice of points, but that no clear guidance for point selection can be given in any one case. A particularly disturbing feature is that for some types of problems there can be instability in the probability estimate as the location of the points is changed. This is demonstrated through a previously well-discussed example. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.