Influenza pandemic periodicity, virus recycling, and the art of risk assessment
Influenza pandemic periodicity, virus recycling, and the art of risk assessment
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DOI：
10.3201/eid1201.051013
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Dowdle, WR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dowdle, WR
流感大流行风险评估是一门不确定的艺术。甲型流感病毒大流行每10至11年发生一次的理论和病毒循环的血清学证据在1976年初为新泽西迪克斯堡猪流感爆发的风险评估和风险管理奠定了基础。更多的数据和时间的推移证明了这一理论站不住脚。自1976年以来，人们对甲型流感病毒及其自然史已经有了很多了解，但导致大流行毒株出现的确切条件仍然未知。目前的禽流感事件与1976年的猪流感事件相似，但规模更大，更复杂。大流行前和大流行后的风险评估和风险管理是连续的但独立的公共卫生职能。
Influenza pandemic risk assessment is an uncertain art. The theory that influenza A virus pandemics; occur every 10 to 11 years and seroarcheologic evidence of virus recycling set the stage in early 1976 for risk assessment and risk management of the Fort Dix, New Jersey, swine influenza outbreak. Additional data and passage of time proved the theory untenable. Much has been learned about influenza A virus and its natural history since 1976, but the exact conditions that lead to the emergence of a pandemic strain are still unknown. Current avian influenza events parallel those of swine influenza in 1976 but on a larger and more complex scale. Pre- and postpandemic risk assessment and risk management are continuous but separate public health functions.