Lifetime risk for developing congestive heart failure - The Framingham Heart Study
Lifetime risk for developing congestive heart failure - The Framingham Heart Study
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DOI：
10.1161/01.cir.0000039105.49749.6f
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发表时间：
2002-12-10
期刊：
影响因子：
37.8
通讯作者：
Levy, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lloyd-Jones, DM;Larson, MG;Levy, D
背景 - 充血性心力衰竭（CHF）是一个日益严重的公共卫生问题。
方法与结果 - 在基线时无充血性心力衰竭的弗雷明汉心脏研究受试者中，我们确定了在选定的指标年龄发生显性充血性心力衰竭的终生风险。从1971年到1996年，我们对3757名男性和4472名女性进行了随访，共124262人年；583名受试者发生了充血性心力衰竭，2002人在未发生过充血性心力衰竭的情况下死亡。在40岁时，男性发生充血性心力衰竭的终生风险为21.0%（95%置信区间为18.7% - 23.2%），女性为20.3%（95%置信区间为18.2% - 22.5%）。由于充血性心力衰竭发病率迅速上升，剩余终生风险并未随指标年龄的增长而改变。在80岁时，男性的终生风险为20.2%（95%置信区间为16.1% - 24.2%），女性为19.3%（95%置信区间为16.5% - 22.2%）。与血压正常者相比，血压≥160/100的受试者发生充血性心力衰竭的终生风险增加一倍。
Background-Congestive heart failure (CHF) is an increasing public health problem.Methods and Results-Among Framingham Heart Study subjects who were free of CHF at baseline, we determined the lifetime risk for developing overt CHF at selected index ages. We followed 3757 men and 4472 women from 1971 to 1996 for 124 262 person-years; 583. subjects developed CHF and 2002 died without prior CHF. At age 40 years, the lifetime risk for CHF was 21.0% (95% CI 18.7% to 23.2%) for men and 20.3% (95% CI 18.2% to 22.5%) for women. Remaining lifetime risk did not change with advancing index age because of rapidly increasing CHF incidence rates. At age 80 years, the lifetime risk was 20.2% (95% CI 16.1% to 24.2%) for men and 19.3% (95% CI 16.5% to 22.2%) for women. Lifetime risk for CHF doubled for subjects with blood pressure greater than or equal to160/100 versus