Nomograms for predicting long-term survival in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma in an endemic area.
Nomograms for predicting long-term survival in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma in an endemic area.
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预测流行区非转移性鼻咽癌患者长期生存的列线图
DOI：
10.18632/oncotarget.8823
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发表时间：
2016-05-17
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Huang PY
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zeng Q;Hong MH;Shen LJ;Meng XQ;Guo X;Qian CN;Wu PH;Huang PY
目的目前尚无预测非转移性鼻咽癌（NPC）5年以上生存率的列线图。本研究旨在开发新的诺模图来预测这些患者的长期生存。结果训练集和测试集的中位随访时间分别为95.2个月和133.3个月。年龄、性别、体重指数（BMI）、T分期、N分期、乳酸脱氢酶（LDH）和放射治疗技术是死亡的重要预测因素。年龄、性别、T分期、LDH和放疗技术是预测复发的重要因素，而年龄、性别、BMI、T分期、N分期和LDH是预测远处转移的重要因素。校正曲线显示列线图预测的存活率与实际存活率之间的良好一致性。列线图和TNM分期系统预测死亡、复发和远处转移的c指数分别为0.767和0.686（P<0.001）、0.655和0.881和0.754（P<0.001）。这些结果在测试集中得到了进一步证实。方法回顾性分析2000 ~ 2004年1593例单纯放疗或同步放化疗患者的临床资料，筛选出有意义的预测因子，并构建诺模图。绘制并审查诺模图预测生存期与实际生存期的校准曲线。进行Bootstrap验证以计算一致性指数（c指数）。这些模型在一项独立的前瞻性试验（测试集，n=400）中得到进一步验证。结论所建立的诺模图对非转移性鼻咽癌患者的远期预后有较好的预测价值。
Purpose Nomogram for predicting more than a 5-year survival for non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) was lacking. This study aimed to develop the new nomograms to predict long-term survival in these patients. Results The median follow-up time for training set and test set was 95.2 months and 133.3 months, respectively. The significant predictors for death were age, gender, body mass index (BMI), T stage, N stage, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and radiotherapy techniques. For predicting recurrence, age, gender, T stage, LDH, and radiotherapy techniques were significant predictors, whereas age, gender, BMI, T stage, N stage and LDH were significant predictors for distant metastasis. The calibration curves showed the good agreements between nomogram-predicted and actual survival. The c-indices for predicting death, recurrence, and distant metastases between nomograms and the TNM staging system were 0.767 VS.0.686 (P<0.001), 0.655 VS.0.585 (P<0.001), and 0.881 VS.0.754 (P<0.001), respectively. These results were further confirmed in the test set. Methods On the basis of a retrospective study of 1593 patients (training set) who received radiotherapy alone or concurrent chemoradiotherapy from 2000 to 2004, significant predictors were identified and incorporated to build the nomograms. The calibration curves of nomogram-predicted survival versus the actual survival were plotted and reviewed. Bootstrap validation was performed to calculate the concordance index (c-index). These models were further validated in an independent prospective trial (test set, n=400). Conclusion The established nomograms suggest more-accurate long-term prediction for patients with non-metastatic NPC.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
Wei KR;Zheng RS;Zhang SW;Liang ZH;Ou ZX;Chen WQ
通讯作者：
Chen WQ
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Song C;Yang S
通讯作者：
Yang S
治疗前体重指数作为局部晚期鼻咽癌放化疗患者的独立预后因素：随机试验的结果
影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Huang, Pei-Yu;Wang, Cheng-Tao;Hong, Ming-Huang
通讯作者：
Hong, Ming-Huang
治疗前高血清乳酸脱氢酶水平与疾病复发相关，并预测局部晚期鼻咽癌的较差预后
影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Wan, Xiang-bo;Wei, Li;Hong, Ming-huang
通讯作者：
Hong, Ming-huang
影响因子：
51.1
作者：
Chen, Lei;Hu, Chao-Su;Ma, Jun
通讯作者：
Ma, Jun