Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century
Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century
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DOI：
10.1086/684582
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发表时间：
2016-02-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Shapiro, Joseph S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barreca, Alan;Clay, Karen;Shapiro, Joseph S.
本文研究了20世纪美国的温度-死亡率关系，这既是为了自身的利益，也是为了确定未来几十年可能有用的适应措施。有三个主要发现。首先，平均温度超过80华氏度的日子对死亡率的影响下降了75%。几乎所有的下降都发生在1960年以后。其次，住宅空调的普及基本上解释了与炎热天气有关的死亡率的整体下降。第三，使用Dubin和McFadden的离散-连续模型，美国引入住宅空调的消费者剩余的现值估计为850 - 1850亿美元（2012年美元）。
This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the twentieth-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades. There are three primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 80 degrees F declined by 75 percent. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960. Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day-related fatalities. Third, using Dubin and McFadden's discrete-continuous model, the present value of US consumer surplus from the introduction of residential air conditioning is estimated to be $85-$185 billion (2012 dollars).