Integrated electricity-heat-gas modelling and assessment, with applications to the Great Britain system. Part I: High-resolution spatial and temporal heat demand modelling
Integrated electricity-heat-gas modelling and assessment, with applications to the Great Britain system. Part I: High-resolution spatial and temporal heat demand modelling
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2018.02.079
复制
发表时间：
2018-02
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
S. Clegg;P. Mancarella
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Clegg;P. Mancarella
在大多数国家，供暖行业是温室气体排放的主要来源，尤其是在英国，它占碳排放量的20%左右。因此，提出了各种方案来脱碳加热。然而，这一方向的研究通常没有考虑到在多能源系统背景下与电力和天然气部门的紧密相互作用，也没有考虑到所需的地理和时间分辨率。为了弥补这一差距，研究人员开发了一种新型的高分辨率时空综合电-热-气模型，以评估考虑热需求的低碳供暖方案对电力和天然气输送网络的影响。该模型的介绍由两部分组成。通过使用建筑模拟软件和统计信息，第一部分开发了整个英国404个地区的季节性和日间热需求模型，每隔半小时进行一次。然后，对不同的加热技术进行建模，绘制出对电力和天然气区域供应的等效影响。通过将结果与历史油耗数据进行比较，模型验证表明，燃料消耗的评估精度可以在3%以内。数值研究强调了高分辨率建模对捕获峰值和资产需求的重要性。特别是，研究结果显示，半小时的峰值热需求可能比平均日热需求高出约200%。在第二部分的配套论文中，将开发的热需求模型作为输入应用于一个新的综合热、气和电传输网络模型，该模型解决了有关供热部门变化对未来基础设施的潜在影响和要求的问题。
The heating sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in most countries, and in the UK in particular it accounts for around 20% of carbon emissions. Therefore, various scenarios have been proposed to decarbonise heating. However, studies in this direction do not typically consider the tight interactions with the electricity and gas sector in a multi-energy system context, nor the required geographical and time resolution. To bridge this gap, a novel high-resolution spatial and temporal integrated electricity-heat-gas model has been developed to assess the impact of low-carbon heating options on electricity and gas transmission networks with the consideration of heat demands requirements. The presentation of this modelling is provided in a two-part paper. By using building simulation software and statistical information, Part I, presented here, develops a model for the seasonal and intraday heat demand at half-hourly intervals for 404 areas across the whole of Great Britain (GB). Modelling of different heating technologies has then been used to map the equivalent impact on electricity and gas regional supplies. Model validation is performed by comparing results against historical gas consumption data and shows that fuel consumption can be evaluated to within a 3% accuracy. The numerical studies highlight the importance of high-resolution modelling to capture peak and asset requirements. In particular, the results show how the half-hourly peak heat demand can be around 200% greater than the mean daily heat demand. In the companion paper, Part II, the developed heat demand model is then applied as an input into a novel integrated heat, gas and electrical transmission network model that addresses questions concerning potential future infrastructure impacts and requirements upon changes to the heating sector.