Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits (Parus major)
Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits (Parus major)
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2021.1337
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发表时间：
2021-11-24
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Jenouvrier, Stephanie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Visser, Marcel E.;Lindner, Melanie;Jenouvrier, Stephanie
气候变化导致许多物种的物候变化，但在物种和营养级之间的幅度差异很大。大山雀（Parus major）是捕食者和猎物之间物候不匹配的典型例子，这种不匹配导致了早期季节性繁殖的定向选择。自然气候变率可以掩盖气候变化在某些时期的影响，削弱物候不匹配和选择。在这里，我们表明，在过去的二十年里，随着晚春气温的上升放缓，季节性时间的选择确实大大减弱。因此，在毛虫食物丰富的高峰期没有进一步的进展，而大山雀的物候继续前进，从而削弱了物候不匹配。因此，我们表明，温度之间的关系，猎物和捕食者的物候，捕食者物候和选择是强大的，也在变暖放缓的时候。使用预测的温度从一个大的气候模拟，考虑到自然气候的变化，我们表明，猎物物候再次预计在未来几十年比大山雀物候更快地推进，因此，长期的全球变暖将加剧物候不匹配。
Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit (Parus major), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection. Here, we show that selection on seasonal timing indeed weakened significantly over the past two decades as increases in late spring temperatures have slowed down. Consequently, there has been no further advancement in the date of peak caterpillar food abundance, while great tit phenology has continued to advance, thereby weakening the phenological mismatch. We thus show that the relationships between temperature, phenologies of prey and predator, and selection on predator phenology are robust, also in times of a slowdown of warming. Using projected temperatures from a large ensemble of climate simulations that take natural climate variability into account, we show that prey phenology is again projected to advance faster than great tit phenology in the coming decades, and therefore that long-term global warming will intensify phenological mismatches.