Social-media and newspaper reports reveal large-scale meteorological drivers of floods on Sumatra
Social-media and newspaper reports reveal large-scale meteorological drivers of floods on Sumatra
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-020-16171-2
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发表时间：
2020-05-19
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Marzuki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Baranowski, Dariusz B.;Flatau, Maria K.;Marzuki
洪水是苏门答腊自然灾害的主要原因。然而，除其他因素外，由于缺乏完整的洪水记录，导致洪水的大气条件还没有得到很好的了解。在这里，来自政府报告的苏门答腊5年洪水记录，以及基于Twitter消息和当地报纸报道的众包数据，被创建并用于分析造成洪水的大气现象。结果表明，对于大多数分析的洪水，对流耦合开尔文波，大尺度降水系统传播在类似的12米/秒沿着赤道，发挥关键作用。虽然季节和季节内变化也可以创造有利于洪水的条件，但在90%以上的洪水事件中发现了与开尔文波相关的降水增强。在30%的这些事件降水异常归因于开尔文波。这些结果表明，洪水风险的可预测性提高的潜力。
Floods are a major contributor to natural disasters in Sumatra. However, atmospheric conditions leading to floods are not well understood due, among other factors, to the lack of a complete record of floods. Here, the 5 year flood record for Sumatra derived from governmental reports, as well as from crowd-sourcing data, based on Twitter messages and local newspapers' reports, is created and used to analyze atmospheric phenomena responsible for floods. It is shown, that for the majority of analyzed floods, convectively coupled Kelvin waves, large scale precipitation systems propagating at similar to 12 m/s along the equator, play the critical role. While seasonal and intraseasonal variability can also create conditions favorable for flooding, the enhanced precipitation related to Kelvin waves was found in over 90% of flood events. In 30% of these events precipitation anomalies were attributed to Kelvin waves only. These results indicate the potential for increased predictability of flood risk.