Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis
Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis
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海冰预测阿德利企鹅种群增长的长期趋势，但不能预测年度波动：范围广泛的多尺度分析的结果
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
S. Jenouvrier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Iles;H. Lynch;R. Ji;C. Barbraud;K. Delord;S. Jenouvrier
了解环境变异影响种群的尺度对于预测快速变化环境中的种群动态和物种分布至关重要。在这里，我们对阿德利企鹅的广泛调查数据进行了多层次贝叶斯分析，以表征海冰对人口增长的多年和年度影响。我们发现繁殖群体的平均海冰浓度（即，“普遍的”环境条件）对几十年的种群趋势有强大的非线性影响，并解释了85%以上的平均种群增长率的变化。相比之下，尽管大多数繁殖群体的丰度每年都有相当大的波动，但每年的海冰波动通常解释不到10%的人口增长率的时间变化。我们的研究提供了对空间和时间动态环境因素的理解，这些因素定义了阿德利企鹅的范围限制，进一步将这种标志性的海洋捕食者确定为真正的海冰专性动物，并为未来气候变化情景下的预测提供了坚实的基础。然而，考虑到每年海冰的影响相对于年度增长率中无法解释的巨大差异而言很弱，因此对阿德利企鹅繁殖丰度进行有用的短期预测的能力将非常有限。我们的方法提供了一个强大的框架，将短期和长期的人口过程与环境条件联系起来，可以应用于任何物种，促进对生态可预测性和对全球变化的敏感性的更丰富的理解。
Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range‐wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., “prevailing” environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year‐to‐year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year‐to‐year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short‐term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short‐ and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Rosenberg, Kenneth V.;Dokter, Adriaan M.;Marra, Peter P.
通讯作者：
Marra, Peter P.