The end of the fertility transition in the developed world
The end of the fertility transition in the developed world
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2002.00419.x
复制
发表时间：
2002-09-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Bongaarts, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bongaarts, J
到1990年代后期，发达国家的平均总生育率下降到1.6，大大低于1970年代和1980年代的预测。本文探讨了发达国家生育率的最新趋势和模式，特别强调了生育时间变化的影响和影响。主要目的是证明，虽然这些国家的生育率确实很低，但妇女的生育水平并不像总生育率等时期指标所显示的那样低。为了充分了解生育率变化的各个方面，对若干指标进行了审查，包括按出生顺序和生育偏好分列的时期和群组生育率。对这些指标的分析表明，许多发达国家的生育率指标因平均生育年龄上升而暂时受到抑制。在意大利和西班牙，总生育率的扭曲程度高达每名妇女0.4胎。自1970年代以来，许多发达国家都出现了这些影响，并可能在未来持续多年。但是克里思影响是暂时的，一旦推迟生育结束（这最终是必须的），相应的生育率抑制效应也就停止了，从而对生育率产生了上升的压力。如果生育时间稳定下来，生育率极低和克里思效应显著的国家很可能在不久的将来出现生育率上升。然而，即使发生这种情况，生育率似乎也不太可能反弹到更替水平。
By the late 1990s the average period total fertility rate in the developed world had declined to 1.6, a level substantially lower than projected in the 1970s and 1980s. This article examines recent trends and patterns in fertility in the developed world with particular emphasis on the effects and implications of changes in the timing of childbearing. The main objective is to demonstrate that while fertility in these countries is indeed low, women's childbearing levels are not as low as period measures such as the total fertility rate suggest. To obtain a full understanding of the various dimensions of fertility change, several indicators are examined, including period and cohort fertility by birth order and childbearing preferences. An analysis of these indicators demonstrates that period fertility measures in many developed countries are temporarily depressed by a rise in the mean age at childbearing. The distortion of the TFR is as great as 0.4 births per woman in Italy and Spain. These effects have been present in many developed countries since the 1970s and could continue for years into the future. But tempo effects are temporary, and once the postponement of childbearing ends-as it eventually must-the corresponding fertility-depressing effect stops, thus putting upward pressure on period fertility. Countries with very low fertility and substantial tempo effects may well experience rises in fertility in the near future if the timing of childbearing stabilizes. Even if this happens, however, it seems unlikely that fertility will rebound to the replacement level.