The Causes of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation
The Causes of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation
复制标题
核武器扩散的原因
DOI：
10.1146/annurev-polisci-052209-131042
复制
发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
10.8
通讯作者：
Scott D. Sagan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Scott D. Sagan
这篇关于核武器扩散原因的新政治学文献的批判性评论由七个部分组成。第一部分简要介绍了我们所知道的哪些国家发展了核武器，哪些国家开始但放弃了武器发展计划。我强调了由于数据的准确性和完整性不确定而导致的问题。第二节和第三节回顾了有关发展核武器的技术能力扩散的文献。我们仍然缺乏关于发展民用核能计划和获取核武器之间关系的可靠知识。接下来的两节将回顾有关核武器需求的文献。比较案例研究和统计研究提高了我们对武器发展和限制动机多样性的理解，但我们的知识仍然存在严重差距。第六部分概述了关于核不扩散条约（NPT）对核武器计划决策的潜在影响的替代理论。最后，我列出了未来的研究议程，以解决我们目前对核扩散原因的理解中的弱点。
This critical review of the new political science literature on the causes of nuclear weapons proliferation consists of seven parts. The first section briefly presents what we know about which states developed nuclear weapons and which states started but abandoned weapons development programs. I highlight the problems that result from uncertainty about the accuracy and completeness of the data. The second and third sections review the literature on the spread of the technical capability to develop nuclear weapons. We still lack robust knowledge about the relationship between the development of civilian nuclear power programs and nuclear weapons acquisition. The next two sections review the literature on the demand for nuclear weapons. Comparative case studies and statistical studies have improved our understanding of the diversity of motives for weapons development and restraints, but serious gaps in our knowledge remain. The sixth section outlines alternative theories about the potential impact of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) on nuclear weapons programs decisions. Finally, I lay out a future research agenda to address the weaknesses in our current understanding of the causes of nuclear proliferation.