The effect of environmental degradation and land use change on malaria re-emergence in south Venezuela: a spatiotemporal modelling study
The effect of environmental degradation and land use change on malaria re-emergence in south Venezuela: a spatiotemporal modelling study
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环境退化和土地利用变化对委内瑞拉南部疟疾重新出现的影响：时空模型研究
DOI：
10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00097-8
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Fletcher I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fletcher I
疟疾传播高度依赖于环境条件。气候变量与疟疾传播之间的关联已经得到了很好的证实，但是气候变化与土地利用变化（如砍伐森林）之间的相互作用还不太清楚。地球观测数据为调查这些环境-疟疾关联提供了宝贵和可获得的资源，特别是在地面真实数据很少的情况下。拉丁美洲在消除疟疾方面取得的进展受到委内瑞拉病例激增的阻碍，该国在2019年占该地区病例的53%。该国的经济和政治危机助长了向南部金矿地区的经济移民，那里的开采活动扩大了疟疾病媒的栖息地，并维持了疾病的传播。方法利用多源地球观测数据，包括气象、土地利用变化、社会经济因素和采矿活动数据，研究了过去20年生态景观的变化是如何促进疟疾发病率增加的。我们使用贝叶斯分层混合模型框架对1996-2016年委内瑞拉Bolívar州的时空疟疾病例数据进行建模，该州是一个疟疾疫区，每年约有60%的全国病例发生。我们研究了采矿活动与疟疾热点之间的关系，并考虑了气候变化、季节性和空间依赖结构的潜在影响。我们发现，在采矿热点地区，疟疾风险增加，这是Bolívar州维持传播的重要因素。我们还发现，温度和降雨变化的影响取决于Bolívar的森林砍伐程度，在森林砍伐更多的地区，疟疾风险随着温度的升高而增加的风险最大。我们的研究结果为环境驱动的疟疾再次出现提供了重要证据，并强调了在数据记录稀少或不完整的地区使用地球观测数据了解疟疾动态的优势。资助生物技术和生物科学研究委员会和皇家学会多萝西霍奇金奖学金。
BackgroundMalaria transmission is highly dependent on environmental conditions. The association between climatic variables and malaria transmission is well established, but the interaction between variations in climate and land use change, such as deforestation, is less well understood. Earth observation data provide a valuable and accessible resource to investigate these environment–malaria associations, in particular where little ground truth data are available. Progress towards malaria elimination in Latin America is being hindered by a surge of cases in Venezuela, a country that accounted for 53% of cases in the region in 2019. The country's economic and political crisis has fuelled economic migration to gold mining areas in the south, where extraction activities are expanding malaria vector habitats and sustaining disease transmission.MethodsIn this spatiotemporal modelling study, we used multisource Earth observation data, including meteorological, land use change, and socioeconomic factors, and data on mining activity, to investigate how changes in the ecological landscape might have facilitated increases in the incidence of malaria in the past 20 years. We modelled spatiotemporal malaria case data for 1996–2016 using a Bayesian hierarchical mixed-model framework for Bolívar state in Venezuela, a malaria foci where approximately 60% of national cases occur annually. We examined how mining activities were associated with malaria hotspots and also considered the potential effects of climate variation, seasonality, and spatial dependency structures.FindingsWe found that malaria risk was increased in mining hotspots, which were important in sustaining transmission in Bolívar state. We also found that the effect of temperature and rainfall variation differed depending on the level of deforestation in Bolívar, where the increased risk of malaria with temperature was greatest in areas that were more deforested.InterpretationOur findings provide important evidence of environmentally driven re-emergence of malaria and highlight the advantages of using Earth observation data for understanding malaria dynamics in areas with sparse or incomplete data records.FundingThe Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship.