Panel Data Analysis in Comparative Politics: Linking Method to Theory
Panel Data Analysis in Comparative Politics: Linking Method to Theory
复制标题
比较政治学中的面板数据分析：方法与理论的联系
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Manow
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thomas Plümper;Vera E. Troeger;P. Manow
本文重新分析了Garrett和Mitchell的一项研究(“全球化、经合组织的政府支出和税收”，《欧洲政治研究杂志》39(2)(2001):145-177)，指出了在使用滞后因变量、时期和单位假人（事实上的Beck-Katz标准）的面板数据分析中存在的四个潜在问题来源。这些是：单位假人对横断面方差的吸收，滞后因变量和周期假人对时间序列方差的吸收，滞后结构的错误规范，以及参数斜率异质性的忽视。在此基础上，我们建议对估计方法和估计模型进行实质性的改变。采用我们偏好的方法论立场，我们证明加勒特和米切尔的发现并不可靠。相反，我们表明，正如理论家所预期的那样，党派政治和社会经济因素（如老龄化和失业）对政府支出的时间序列和横截面方差有很强的影响。
Re-analyzing a study of Garrett and Mitchell ('Globalization, government spend- ing and taxation in the OECD', European Journal of Political Research 39(2) (2001): 145-177), this article addresses four potential sources of problems in panel data analyses with a lagged dependent variable and period and unit dummies (the de facto Beck-Katz standard). These are: absorption of cross-sectional variance by unit dummies, absorption of time-series variance by the lagged dependent variable and period dummies, mis-specifica- tion of the lag structure, and neglect of parameter slope heterogeneity. Based on this dis- cussion, we suggest substantial changes of the estimation approach and the estimated model. Employing our preferred methodological stance, we demonstrate that Garrett and Mitchell's findings are not robust. Instead, we show that partisan politics and socioeconomic factors such as aging and unemployment as expected by theorists have a strong impact on the time- series and cross-sectional variance in government spending.