Impact of Recent Crises and Disasters on Regional Production/Distribution Networks and Trade in Japan
Impact of Recent Crises and Disasters on Regional Production/Distribution Networks and Trade in Japan
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最近的危机和灾难对日本区域生产/分销网络和贸易的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Ando
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Ando
本文揭示了机械行业的国内/国际生产网络，并主要从日本出口的角度探讨了日本近年来遭遇的经济危机和自然/技术灾难如何影响网络和贸易。更具体地说，本文首先将机械出口的变化分解为粗放利润和集约利润，然后使用logit估计来检验贸易下降和复苏的概率，以捕捉危机（即2008-2009年全球金融危机（GFC）和2011年东日本大地震（EJE））下国际生产/分销网络的性质。讨论的重点还包括国内活动以及 2011 年泰国洪水的影响。此外，考虑到2011年EJE不仅是自然灾害，也是严重影响日本农业和食品出口的技术灾难，因此对其出口影响也进行了调查。我们的分析表明，无论是需求冲击还是供给冲击，经济/自然灾害都揭示了机械行业生产网络的稳定性和稳健性，尽管其负面影响很严重，并且在一开始就通过生产网络传导。与此同时，我们的分析从这些危机的经历中得出了各种政策含义。
This paper sheds light on domestic/international production networks in machinery industries and examines how the economic crisis and natural/technological disaster that Japan encountered in recent years affected the networks and trade, mainly from the viewpoint of Japan’s exports. More specifically, the paper first decomposes changes in machinery exports into extensive and intensive margins and then examines the probability of trade declines and recoveries, using a logit estimation, in order to capture the natures of international production/distribution networks under the crises, i.e., the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (EJE). Discussion is also presented focusing on domestic activities as well as the impacts of the 2011 Thailand floods. Moreover, considering that the 2011 EJE is not only a natural disaster but also a technological disaster that seriously affected Japan’s agriculture and food exports, the impacts on their exports are investigated as well. Our analyses suggest that, regardless of whether demand shock or supply shock, the economic/natural disasters revealed the stability and robustness of production networks in machinery sectors, though their negative impacts are severe and transmitted through production networks at the beginning. At the same time, our analyses draw various policy implications from the experiences of these crises.
影响因子：
1.3
作者：
Ando, Mitsuyo;Kimura, Fukunari
通讯作者：
Kimura, Fukunari