Atmospheric teleconnection associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability in summer: assessment of the CESM1 model
Atmospheric teleconnection associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability in summer: assessment of the CESM1 model
复制标题
与夏季大西洋数十年变化相关的大气遥相关：CESM1 模型的评估
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-022-06331-z
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发表时间：
2022-06
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Xianmei Lang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dong Si;Aixue Hu;Dabang Jiang;Xianmei Lang
观测分析表明，大西洋的年代际变率（AMV）与北方半球的气候变率有着密切的联系，这种联系是通过一个从北大西洋向东绕北方半球传播的纬向大气遥相关来实现的。我们研究了模式模拟重现观测到的夏季AMV和中纬度气候的相关影响的保真度分析模拟使用美国国家大气研究中心社区地球系统模式版本1（CESM 1），包括CESM 1北大西洋理想化和起搏器模拟，CESM 1大型合奏二十世纪未初始化的模拟和大型合奏初始化CESM 1年代际预测。为了进一步比较CESM 1的保真度，我们还分析了来自其他三个模型的大型集合模拟。我们的结果表明，所有模式的未初始化的大集合模拟可以产生一个AMV的时间演变，其区域气候影响在一定程度上类似于观测。在年代际预报模拟中，通过初始化观测海洋条件，模拟的AMV及其区域影响比未初始化的集合模拟更接近观测结果。此外，起搏器模拟，轻推的时间演变观察到的北大西洋海面温度异常产生时空特征的AMV和AMV气候影响更接近观察到的比未初始化的模拟。我们的结论是，虽然耦合模式可以产生AMV和它的区域影响类似于观察到的，适当的初始化和偏差校正的海表温度的空间和时间结构可以提高这种能力。
Observational analysis shows that the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is associated with climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere through a zonal atmospheric teleconnection extending from the North Atlantic Ocean and propagating eastward around the Northern Hemisphere. We studied the fidelity of model simulations in reproducing the observed summer AMV and the associated impacts on the mid-latitude climate by analysing simulations using the National Centre for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1), including CESM1 North Atlantic idealized and pacemaker simulations, CESM1 large ensemble twentieth century uninitialized simulations and large ensemble initialized CESM1 decadal predictions. To further compare the fidelity of CESM1, we also analysed large ensemble simulations from three other models. Our results suggest that the uninitialized large ensemble simulations from all models can produce an AMV time evolution and its regional climate impacts similar to the observations to certain degree. By initializing the observed oceanic condition in decadal prediction simulations, the simulated AMV and its regional impacts are closer to the observed ones than those in uninitialized ensemble simulations. In addition, the pacemaker simulations that nudged the time-evolving observed North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies produce spatiotemporal characteristics of the AMV and AMV climate impacts closer to the observed ones than the uninitialized simulations. We conclude that although coupled models can produce AMV and its regional impacts similar to observed, proper initialization and bias correction of the sea surface temperature spatial and temporal structure can improve this capability.
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