The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases
The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases
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DOI：
10.1890/08-0079.1
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发表时间：
2009-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Lafferty, Kevin D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lafferty, Kevin D.
预计随着气候变化，传染病的分布和流行将在全球范围内增加，这意味着一场迫在眉睫的社会危机。这一问题越来越引起卫生专业人员和气候变化科学家的注意，特别是在疟疾和其他病媒传播的人类疾病方面。其结果是出现了一个危机学科，让人想起保护生物学的早期阶段。气候和疾病之间的垂直、垂直、季节和年际关系沿着历史和实验证据表明，气候，沿着许多其他因素，可以以非线性方式影响传染病。但是，尽管地球仪比世纪前明显变暖，但很少有证据表明气候变化已经有利于传染病。虽然最初的预测表明，传染病的地理范围在未来会急剧增加，但最近的模型预测疾病分布的范围会发生变化，而地区的净增加很少。许多因素可以影响传染病，有些因素可能会掩盖气候的影响。
The projected global increase in the distribution and prevalence of infectious diseases with climate change suggests a pending societal crisis. The subject is increasingly attracting the attention of health professionals and climate-change scientists, particularly with respect to malaria and other vector-transmitted human diseases. The result has been the emergence of a crisis discipline, reminiscent of the early phases of conservation biology. Latitudinal, altitudinal, seasonal, and interannual associations between climate and disease along with historical and experimental evidence suggest that climate, along with many other factors, can affect infectious diseases in a nonlinear fashion. However, although the globe is significantly warmer than it was a century ago, there is little evidence that climate change has already favored infectious diseases. While initial projections suggested dramatic future increases in the geographic range of infectious diseases, recent models predict range shifts in disease distributions, with little net increase in area. Many factors can affect infectious disease, and some may overshadow the effects of climate.