The failure of China׳s Energy Development Strategy 2050 and its impact on carbon emissions
The failure of China׳s Energy Development Strategy 2050 and its impact on carbon emissions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.rser.2015.04.096
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发表时间：
2015-09
影响因子：
15.9
通讯作者：
Jie Fan;Qiang Wang;Wei Sun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jie Fan;Qiang Wang;Wei Sun
中国是世界上最大的能源消费国和碳排放国。中国的能源发展战略对世界能源安全和全球碳减排目标具有重要意义。本文对1985年开始实施的《中国能源发展战略2050》（EDS 2050）的实施情况进行了研究。本研究分析了EDS 2050失效的原因及其对碳排放的影响。结果表明：（1）2010年能源统计2050基本失效，一次能源消费量和生产量的战略规划值与实际值相比分别低估了39%和67%。(2)将EDS 2050中基本参数的预测值与实际值进行比较，在生产领域，主要原因是低估了经济增长速度和非农产业比重，而在生活领域，主要原因是低估了城镇化和农村人均能源消费。对各省的进一步分析表明，导致EDS 2050失败的主要因素包括经济增长率、城市化、人口增长和汽车拥有量的增长。(3)EDS 2050失效导致2010年碳排放量增加583.50× 106 tc，人均碳排放量增幅达46.49-47.04%;单位产出碳排放量呈下降趋势，这是技术进步的结果。提高能源利用效率，优化能源利用，促进国家节能，是我国未来能源可持续发展战略的重点。
China is the world׳s largest energy consumer and emitter of carbon. China׳s energy development strategy is thus of great significance to the world׳s energy security and global carbon reduction target. In this study, the implementation of “China׳s Energy Development Strategy 2050” (EDS2050), which has been in operation since 1985, is investigated. This study analyzes the causes of the failure of EDS2050 and the impacts of that failure on carbon emissions. The results show the following: (1) EDS2050 basically failed in 2010, and the strategic planning values of primary energy consumption and production were underestimated compared with the actual values by 39% and 67%, respectively. (2) Comparing the predicted values of basic parameters in EDS2050 with the actual values, in the production field, the main causes of failure were the underestimation of the economic growth rate and the proportion of non-agricultural industries, while in the living field, the main causes were the underestimation of urbanization and per capita energy consumption in rural areas. Further analyses of various provinces demonstrated that the major factors leading to EDS2050 failure include the economic growth rate, urbanization, population growth, and the growth in car ownership. (3) EDS2050 failure resulted in an increase in carbon emissions in 2010 of 583.50×106tc, and increases of per capita carbon emissions reached 46.49–47.04%; carbon emissions per unit of output demonstrated a reduction, which was as a result of technological progress. Improving energy efficiency, optimizing energy utilization, and promoting national energy conservation should be highly emphasized in China׳s future sustainable energy development strategy.