Economic resilience to transportation failure: a computable general equilibrium analysis
Economic resilience to transportation failure: a computable general equilibrium analysis
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2810545
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发表时间：
2016-07
期刊：
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Zhenhua Chen;A. Rose
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhenhua Chen;A. Rose
本研究开发并应用了一个多式联运可计算一般均衡（CGE）框架来研究弹性在运输系统故障的经济后果中的作用。采用综合应变模型对不同交通基础设施模式（包括航空、公路、铁路、水路和地方交通）的脆弱性和经济弹性进行了评估，该模型结合了多种弹性策略，包括模式替代、行程节约、过剩容量、搬迁/改道和服务恢复。分析了可及性、脆弱性和恢复力之间的联系。将该模型应用于卡特里娜飓风后的交通系统故障，以说明其能力。然而，该分析框架具有更广泛的应用，可以为资源分配提供见解，以加强对意外事件的应急响应，并改善交通基础设施系统的弹性设计。
Abstract This study develops and applies a multimodal computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework to investigate the role of resilience in the economic consequences of transportation system failures. Vulnerability and economic resilience of different modes of transportation infrastructure, including air, road, rail, water and local transit, are assessed using a CGE model that incorporates various resilience tactics including modal substitution, trip conservation, excess capacity, relocation/rerouting, and service recapture. The linkages between accessibility, vulnerability, and resilience are analyzed. The model is applied to the transportation system failures in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina to illustrate its capabilities. The analytical framework, however, has broader applications and can provide insights for resource allocations to enhance emergent responses to unexpected events and to improve resilient design of transportation infrastructure systems.