Impact of the Future Climate and Land Use Changes on the Hydrology and Water Resources in South East England, UK
Impact of the Future Climate and Land Use Changes on the Hydrology and Water Resources in South East England, UK
复制标题
未来气候和土地利用变化对英国东南部水文和水资源的影响
DOI：
10.12691/ajwr-8-5-2
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
R. Ragab
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Afzal;R. Ragab
这项研究是在英国英格兰东南部的泰晤士河流域的代表庞集水区进行的。该盆地每年平均降雨量为690毫米，是英国最干旱的地区之一。盆地的三分之二是可渗透的白垩，中侏罗世石灰岩和河流砾石。白垩是英格兰东南部的主要含水层。这项研究的目的是调查气候和土地利用变化对水资源的影响。应用了UKCP 09气候情景到2099年。结果表明，到21世纪80年代，在高排放情景下，夏秋季、冬季和春季径流量分别减少37%、32%和70%，而夏秋季和冬春季地下水补给量分别减少70%和46%。增加阔叶林面积将减少径流和地下水补给15%和19%，分别在春季和夏季。侦察干旱指数（RDI）预测，到21世纪80年代，干旱事件的数量、严重程度和频率都将增加。Pang的结果将有助于英格兰东南部未来的区域规划和水资源管理。
This study was carried out on the Pang catchment as a representative of the Thames River basin in the southeast of England, UK. The basin receives an average of 690 mm rainfall per year, making it one of the driest parts of the UK. Two-thirds of the basin is permeable chalk, middle Jurassic limestones, and river gravels. The Chalk is the main aquifer in southeast England. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of climate and land-use changes on water resources. The UKCP09 climate scenarios up to 2099 were applied. The results indicated that by the 2080s, under high emission scenarios, streamflow could decrease by 37%, 32%, and 70% during summer-autumn, winter and spring, respectively while the groundwater recharge could decrease by 70% and 46% during summer-autumn and winter-spring, respectively. Increasing broadleaf forest area would reduce streamflow and groundwater recharge by 15% and 19% during spring and summer, respectively. The Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI projected an increase in number, severity, and frequency of drought events up to the 2080s. The results of the Pang would help in future regional planning and management of the water resources in the southeast of England.