Transmission center and driving factors of hand, foot, and mouth disease in China: A combined analysis
Transmission center and driving factors of hand, foot, and mouth disease in China: A combined analysis
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我国手足口病传播中心及驱动因素:综合分析.
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0008070
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发表时间：
2020-03-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Zhao, Genming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hu, Yi;Xu, Lili;Zhao, Genming
手足口病（HFMD）已成为中国主要的公共卫生问题。疾病的发病率在时间和空间上有很大的差异。为了了解手足口病传播的异质性，我们对青海省和上海市2009 - 2016年的县级数据进行流行病学、小波时间序列和数学方法相结合的分析，比较了手足口病的时空动态。我们观察到青海的分层流行波，从湟中和上海的奉贤。除了人口因素外，我们还发现行波与社会经济和地理因素有显著的相关性。两个地区的人口流动也存在差异：青海的人口流动是远距离的，上海的人口流动是邻里间的。我们的研究结果为描述手足口病传播的异质性以及设计和实施干预措施提供了重要证据，例如部署最佳疫苗和改变传播中心的当地驱动因素，以预防或限制疾病在这些地区的传播。
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has become a major public health issue in China. The disease incidence varies substantially over time and across space. To understand the heterogeneity of HFMD transmission, we compare the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFMD in Qinghai and Shanghai by conducting combined analysis of epidemiological, wavelet time series, and mathematical methods to county-level data from 2009 to 2016. We observe hierarchical epidemic waves in Qinghai, emanating from Huangzhong and in Shanghai from Fengxian. Besides population, we also find that the traveling waves are significantly associated with socio-economic and geographical factors. The population mobility also varies between the two regions: long-distance movement in Qinghai and between-neighbor commuting in Shanghai. Our findings provide important evidence for characterizing the heterogeneity of HFMD transmission and for the design and implementation of interventions, such as deploying optimal vaccine and changing local driving factors in the transmission center, to prevent or limit disease spread in these areas.