Global Increases in Compound Flood-Hot Extreme Hazards Under Climate Warming
Global Increases in Compound Flood-Hot Extreme Hazards Under Climate Warming
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DOI：
10.1029/2022gl097726
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发表时间：
2022-04-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Zhao, Tongtiegang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gu, Lei;Chen, Jie;Zhao, Tongtiegang
在全球变暖下，一个新型的极端事件类别变得越来越明显，在洪水和极端迅速连续发生，从而对基础设施和生态系统造成了重大损害。但是，这些双变量复合洪水极端（CFH）的危害尚未在全球范围内进行全面检查，并且在气候变暖下的进化仍然没有研究。在这里，我们通过使用CMIP6模型，卫星和重新分析数据集，偏置校正和水文模型的级联建模链，介绍了CFH危害预计变化的首个全球图片。我们发现，在气候变化下，洪水的比例越来越多。预计CFH的联合返回期限将在全球范围内减少，尤其是在热带地区。这些下降的联合回报期在很大程度上是由热极端变化驱动的，这表明CFH危害的可能增加，并最终强调了迫切需要进行适应计划以实现未来风险。
Under global warming, a novel category of extreme events has become increasingly apparent, where flood and hot extremes occur in rapid succession, causing significant damages to infrastructure and ecosystems. However, these bivariate compound flood-hot extreme (CFH) hazards have not been comprehensively examined at the global scale, and their evolution under climate warming remains unstudied. Here, we present the first global picture of projected changes in CFH hazards by using a cascade modeling chain of CMIP6 models, satellite and reanalysis data sets, bias correction, and hydrological models. We find an increasing percentage of floods will be accompanied by hot extremes under climate change; the joint return periods of CFHs are projected to decrease globally, particularly in the tropics. These decreasing joint return periods are largely driven by changes in hot extremes and indicate a likely increase of CFH hazards, and ultimately highlight the urgent need to conduct adaptation planning for future risks.